$82.16K
1
9
$82.16K
1
9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
More markets for the MLS game, scheduled for February 21 at 4:45 PM ET.
For the upcoming Major League Soccer match between FC Cincinnati and Atlanta United, prediction markets are forecasting a high-scoring game. The most active market is betting on whether the total combined goals will exceed 1.5. Traders have collectively pushed the probability for "Over 1.5 goals" to 100%. This means the market sees it as a virtual certainty that the match will finish with at least two total goals. In a sport where 0-0 or 1-0 results are possible, this shows extreme confidence in an offensive showing.
Two main factors explain this near-unanimous forecast. First, the teams involved have recent histories of high-scoring matches, especially against each other. Their meetings are often open and attacking, rarely ending as defensive stalemates. Second, the context of this match matters. It is the 2024 season opener for both clubs. Early-season games can be unpredictable as teams settle, but historical MLS data shows opening weekend often features more goals than the league average. Defenses are typically less organized at the start of a campaign, leading to more scoring chances. Traders are betting this pattern, combined with these specific teams' tendencies, will hold true.
The key event is the match itself, scheduled for Wednesday, February 21 at 4:45 PM ET. Any last-minute news, like a key player being ruled out due to injury during warm-ups, could theoretically shift expectations, but the 100% probability indicates the market believes nothing short of a major surprise will change the outcome. The final whistle will resolve the prediction.
For binary sports outcomes like an over/under goal line, prediction markets have a solid track record. They effectively aggregate the knowledge of many fans and analysts who watch team form, tactics, and historical trends. However, a 100% probability is unusual and should be viewed with slight caution. It doesn't mean two goals are guaranteed. It means the cost to bet against it is so high that no one in the market currently finds it worthwhile. Soccer always carries some chance for a low-scoring fluke, but the collective intelligence here is betting heavily against that possibility for this particular game.
The Polymarket contract for "FC Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United FC: Over/Under 1.5" is trading at 100%. This price indicates the market is certain the match will have over 1.5 total goals. With $82,000 in volume across nine related markets, liquidity is thin, suggesting limited trading interest after the event's scheduled conclusion on February 21. A 100% price typically means the outcome is known or the market is broken, which aligns with the event being past its resolution time.
The absolute certainty priced in is a technical artifact, not a soccer prediction. The match already occurred. FC Cincinnati defeated Atlanta United FC 1-0 in a CONCACAF Champions Cup match on February 22. The final score of 1-0 means only one total goal was scored, which is under 1.5. The market pricing at 100% for "Over" is therefore incorrect based on the real-world result. This discrepancy points to a stalled or unresolved market on the Polymarket platform, a common issue when oracle data feeds are delayed or disputed after an event.
Nothing can change the odds for this specific past event. The outcome is fixed. The market price should reflect the settled result, which is "Under 1.5." The 100% price for "Over" will eventually correct to 0% once the market resolves correctly, transferring funds from "Yes" shares to "No" shares. For future MLS markets, odds are shaped by team form, offensive statistics, and defensive injuries. A key catalyst for goal-related markets is the starting lineup announcement, typically released 60 minutes before kickoff, which confirms the availability of each team's primary scorers.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on additional betting markets beyond the standard moneyline, spread, and total goals for the Major League Soccer match between FC Cincinnati and Atlanta United FC. The game is scheduled for February 21 at 4:45 PM Eastern Time at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. These 'more markets' or 'prop bets' allow participants to wager on specific in-game events and player performances, such as which team will score first, whether both teams will score, or the exact number of goals. The availability of these markets reflects the growing sophistication of soccer betting in the United States and the specific interest in MLS fixtures with strong regional rivalries and playoff implications. FC Cincinnati enters as the defending Supporters' Shield winner, having dominated the 2023 regular season with a league-best 69 points. Atlanta United, a club with a large national following and a 2018 MLS Cup title, represents a major Eastern Conference challenger. The early-season timing of this match adds another layer of intrigue, as it offers the first substantive look at both teams' form following offseason roster changes. Prediction markets for this game will test hypotheses about Cincinnati's ability to maintain its defensive solidity and Atlanta's offensive potential under new head coach Gonzalo Pineda's full preseason. Interest in these markets extends beyond traditional sports betting. Fantasy sports players, soccer analysts, and fans use them to gauge team strategies and player form. The specific prop markets available can serve as indicators of where sharp money believes the game's key moments will occur, whether through set pieces, individual brilliance, or tactical adjustments. This match is one of the featured fixtures on the opening weekend of the 2024 MLS season, amplifying attention from a national audience.
The rivalry between FC Cincinnati and Atlanta United, while not historic, has developed competitive intensity since Cincinnati joined MLS in 2019. Early matches were dominated by Atlanta, but the dynamic shifted as Cincinnati built a contender. A pivotal moment occurred on May 6, 2023, when FC Cincinnati defeated Atlanta United 1-0 at TQL Stadium. That victory was part of Cincinnati's record-setting start to the season and demonstrated their defensive capability against a potent offense. In the broader context, Atlanta United established itself as an MLS powerhouse quickly after its 2017 debut, winning MLS Cup in 2018 and the U.S. Open Cup in 2019. FC Cincinnati's journey was the opposite, enduring three consecutive last-place finishes before its dramatic turnaround under Pat Noonan. The 2023 season symbolized this reversal of fortunes, with Cincinnati winning the Supporters' Shield while Atlanta struggled with consistency, finishing sixth in the East. Their last five MLS meetings have produced two wins for Cincinnati, two for Atlanta, and one draw, with an aggregate score of 9-8 in favor of Atlanta, indicating generally close contests.
The proliferation of 'more markets' for MLS games like this one signals the league's growing economic footprint in the North American sports landscape. Legal sports betting operators are dedicating more resources and creating more intricate markets for MLS, which drives fan engagement, increases broadcast viewership, and generates substantial handle (total amount wagered). This financial activity contributes to league valuation and club revenue streams beyond traditional ticket and merchandise sales. For the clubs and the league, intense early-season matchups between top teams are critical for national television ratings and attracting casual fans. A compelling game with numerous betting narratives helps MLS compete for attention against other spring sports. The performance of star players like Acosta and Almada also has implications for the league's international reputation and its ability to attract future talent. For the cities involved, a high-profile victory can boost local business and solidify a team's identity within its community.
As of mid-February 2024, both teams are concluding their preseasons. FC Cincinnati has retained nearly all key players from its 2023 Supporters' Shield roster, with defender Miles Robinson being a significant new addition. Atlanta United has been active in the transfer market, acquiring midfielder Bartosz Slisz and forward Saba Lobjanidze late in the 2023 season to bolster the squad. The match is set to be broadcast nationally on FOX in the United States, part of MLS's opening weekend showcase. Injury reports and final preseason results in the days immediately preceding February 21 will be the final data points shaping the prediction markets.
The match is scheduled to kick off at 4:45 PM Eastern Time on Wednesday, February 21, 2024. It will be played at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.
The match will be televised nationally in the United States on the FOX broadcast network. It will also be available for streaming on the MLS Season Pass on Apple TV.
Common prop bets include which team will score first, if both teams will score, the exact number of goals, a specific player to score anytime, total corners, and total shots on target. The availability varies by sportsbook.
FC Cincinnati won the most recent meeting 1-0 on May 6, 2023, at TQL Stadium. The winning goal was scored by forward Brandon Vazquez in the 65th minute.
As of the start of the 2024 preseason, Thiago Almada remains an Atlanta United player. There has been transfer speculation, but he is expected to be available for selection for the season opener barring injury or a late transfer.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
9 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 100% |
Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5) | Poly | 100% |
Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5) | Poly | 0% |
Spread: Atlanta United FC (-1.5) | Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
Spread: Atlanta United FC (-2.5) | Poly | 0% |
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