GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

Name: Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$489.22K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

Vol

$489.22K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $489.22K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $489.22K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Poly	57%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Poly	48%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Poly	40%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Poly	30%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Poly	20%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

57%

Top Probability

$489.22K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy reg

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy reg

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $470.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $85.8K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.48)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $238.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $220.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $8.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics