This prediction market topic concerns whether Ukraine and Russia will sign a formal peace agreement by March 31, 2026. The resolution criteria are specific, requiring a written instrument signed by both parties that either ends hostilities, establishes a ceasefire, or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war with stated objectives, principles, steps, or a timetable. The topic sits at the intersection of international law, diplomacy, and military conflict, with profound implications for European security and global geopolitics. The ongoing full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022, has created the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II, making the prospect of a peace deal a subject of intense global speculation and diplomatic effort. Recent developments include stalled battlefield lines, continued Western military aid to Ukraine, and various international peace initiatives, though no direct bilateral negotiations have occurred since early 2022. People are interested in this topic because the outcome will determine the future sovereignty of Ukraine, reshape the European security architecture, impact global energy and food markets, and set precedents for international law regarding territorial integrity and aggression.

Historical Context

The current war has deep roots in the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the subsequent independence of Ukraine in 1991. Tensions escalated in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and fomented a separatist conflict in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. The Minsk agreements, signed in September 2014 and February 2015 under the mediation of France and Germany, attempted to freeze the conflict but failed to be fully implemented, with both sides accusing the other of violations. These agreements established a precedent for internationally mediated formats involving Russia and Ukraine, though they left the fundamental issue of territorial control unresolved. The full-scale invasion launched by Russia on February 24, 2022, shattered the uneasy status quo and rendered the Minsk frameworks obsolete. Early negotiation attempts occurred in Belarus and Turkey in spring 2022, with a draft agreement discussed in Istanbul in March that reportedly included Ukrainian neutrality and security guarantees. These talks collapsed, with both sides blaming the other for the failure, and no high-level bilateral negotiations have taken place since. This history demonstrates the extreme difficulty of achieving a durable peace when core issues of sovereignty and territory remain contested.

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