Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET" [1]. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T08:05:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time, not a record of when the outcome was determined. The source notes the provider status as active [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation was taken at 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-27T09:44:25.721Z [1]. The prices below describe that earlier observation, not live trading at the time you read this.
- Up: 0.505
- Down: 0.495
These are snapshot prices for the two outcomes of one contract. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Because the two prices sum to 1.00, the snapshot shows a near-even split between the two outcomes, but it does not explain why the split is where it is.
The sample covers one market in one saved event, and the record marks it as complete, with no partial sample [1]. No volume figures are included, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many participants are involved.
What remains uncertain
This snapshot does not show the price now, the final resolution, or the TWAP value during the window. It also does not compare this contract with any other platform or any other time window. Contracts with different rules, sources, or end times should not be compared directly, even when their prices differ.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term crypto contract on Polymarket titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET". It is classified as a crypto market and has two outcomes, Up and Down. The contract's rule is that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1] The contract therefore does not ask whether Bitcoin is higher at the end of the window than at the start in a simple spot-price sense. It compares an average of prices across the five-minute window with the price at the window's opening. The source states that the resolution source is "information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream" [1]. It also states that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader should therefore check that data stream, not a general exchange price, when reading how this contract is meant to settle. The timing has several distinct parts. The provider observation of this event was recorded at 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z, and the source record was retrieved at 2026-10-27T09:44:26.149Z [1]. The listed end time in the rules is 2026-10-28T08:05:00.000Z, which corresponds to the 4:05 AM ET end of the title's window [1]. The listed end time is the contract's closing point. It is not evidence that the contract has settled, and the provider status recorded in the source is "active" [1]. Settlement and final outcome are not established by the material available here.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BTC/USD time-weighted average price over the stated five-minute window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the rule uses an average over the window rather than a single moment, the result depends on the path of the price across the interval as recorded by that specific feed [1]. The rule also specifies that other sources and spot markets are not the reference [1]. Readers who compare this contract with price charts from other venues should account for that difference in data source.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Up?
It resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price data is used to settle it?
The stated resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
Does the listed end time mean the market has settled?
No. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T08:05:00.000Z, and the recorded provider status is active [1]. The available source does not show a final resolution.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.