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GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsSports

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Name: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
End: 2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4154.67M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Vol

$4154.67M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4154.67M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.4%avg

max 1.4%

Arbitrage

of 7 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $4154.67M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(7)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	39%	40%	1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	18%	18%	0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	17%	17%	0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	15%	15%	0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6%	6%	0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2%	2%	0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2%	2%	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

40%

Top Probability

$4154.67M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 If X wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi. This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, October 8, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If X wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi. This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $795.25M
* **Total Liquidity:** $37.27M
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 21.34)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (7 mkts) vs Kalshi (7 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $99.20M
  DATA: [Yes: 16.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.4% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 18, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $121.56M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 18, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $91.98M
  DATA: [Yes: 15.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 18, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $108.79M
  DATA: [Yes: 38.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 18, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.1% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.4% spread between platforms.

### 5. Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $122.46M
  DATA: [Yes: 17.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 18, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $125.58M
  DATA: [Yes: 6.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 18, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $125.67M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 18, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHISports

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Volume$0.00

Markets7

POLYMARKETSports

World Cup Winner

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information f

Volume$4154.67M

Markets7

8 of 8

Sort:

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average39.3%

Polymarket

38.6%

Kalshi+1.4%

40.0%

Difference:1.4%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 38.6¢No 61.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 40.0¢No 60.1¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the France win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

If France wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this pro

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average18.1%

Polymarket

17.9%

Kalshi+0.3%

18.3%

Difference:0.3%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 17.9¢No 82.0¢

KKalshi

Yes 18.3¢No 81.8¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the Argentina win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

If Argentina wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average16.9%

Polymarket

16.7%

Kalshi+0.4%

17.1%

Difference:0.4%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 16.7¢No 83.4¢

KKalshi

Yes 17.1¢No 83.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the Spain win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

If Spain wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this prod

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average15.2%

Polymarket+0.1%

15.3%

Kalshi

15.2%

Difference:0.1%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 15.3¢No 84.8¢

KKalshi

Yes 15.2¢No 84.8¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the England win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

If England wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this pr

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average6.2%

Polymarket

6.2%

Kalshi+0.1%

6.3%

Difference:0.1%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 6.2¢No 93.8¢

KKalshi

Yes 6.3¢No 93.8¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the Norway win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

If Norway wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this pro

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

14¢

Polymarket

14¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/AhUs0x" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="2026 FIFA World Cup Winner"></iframe>

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2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

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Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Events (2)

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

World Cup Winner

Markets (8)

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the France win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the Argentina win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the Spain win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the England win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the Norway win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

World Cup Winner

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the France win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the Argentina win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the Spain win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the England win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the Norway win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

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