$666.68
1
2
2 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican Party win the MA-09 House seat? | Poly | 91% |
Will the Democratic Party win the MA-09 House seat? | Poly | 8% |
$666.68
1
2
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 election for Massachusetts's 9th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate as determined by official ballot listings and recognized sources after the November 4, 2026, election. Massachusetts's 9th district, currently represented by Democrat Bill Keating, encompasses the South Shore, Cape Cod, and the Islands, including Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket counties, along with parts of Plymouth and Bristol counties. The district's political dynamics are shaped by its coastal geography, which influences local economies around tourism, fishing, and maritime industries, and its demographic mix of year-round residents, retirees, and seasonal populations. Interest in this market stems from its potential to serve as a bellwether for national political trends in a midterm election cycle, testing Democratic strength in a historically competitive district that has shifted between parties. The 2026 race will also be the first House election in this district following the 2024 presidential contest, offering insights into voter sentiment and party organization in a politically divided era.
Massachusetts's 9th congressional district has existed in various forms since 1795. For most of the 20th century, it was a Republican stronghold, represented by figures like Hastings Keith and Joe Moakley initially as a Republican. A significant shift occurred when Moakley switched to the Democratic Party in 1973 and held the seat until 2001. The district was represented by Republican William Delahunt from 1997 to 2001, who was also a Democrat for most of his tenure. The modern iteration of the district, shaped by the 2010 redistricting, became more favorable to Democrats. Bill Keating, a Democrat, won the seat in 2010 after serving as Norfolk County District Attorney. He has been reelected every two years since, but his margins of victory have fluctuated. In the 2020 election, Keating won with 60% of the vote against Republican Helen Brady. In 2022, he defeated Nick Begley with 59.5%. The 2024 election saw a closer result, with Keating winning about 60% to 40% against Jesse Brown. The district has not elected a Republican to the House since the 1990s, but it has a history of competitive races and split-ticket voting.
The outcome of the MA-09 House election has direct implications for the balance of power in Congress. Every seat contributes to the partisan majority needed to control the House agenda, committee assignments, and legislative priorities. A party flip in this district could signal broader national trends, especially if it occurs in a state where Democrats typically perform well. For residents of the 9th district, the election determines who will advocate for local interests in Washington, particularly concerning coastal erosion, fishing quotas, ferry service, and tourism support. The winner will influence federal spending and policy on issues critical to the district's economy and environment. Beyond the district, political analysts and party strategists watch races like MA-09 to gauge voter sentiment, test campaign messages, and allocate national resources for future elections. The result also affects the political trajectory of the candidates involved and can influence state party dynamics in Massachusetts.
As of late 2024, Representative Bill Keating is the incumbent and has not publicly announced his retirement plans for the 2026 election cycle. The district boundaries for the 2026 election will be those established after the 2020 Census, as the next redistricting will not occur until after the 2030 Census. Candidate filing deadlines for the 2026 primaries are likely to be in mid-2026, following the schedule set by Massachusetts election law. Potential challengers from both parties are likely assessing the race, but no major declared candidates have emerged. The political environment will be shaped by the outcome of the 2024 presidential election and the first two years of the subsequent administration.
The district includes all of Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket counties. It also covers parts of Plymouth County, including the towns of Plymouth, Kingston, and Duxbury, and parts of Bristol County, including the city of Fall River and the town of Westport.
The general election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This is the date set for the 2026 midterm elections nationwide. Party primaries to select nominees will occur earlier in 2026, with specific dates set by Massachusetts state law.
Yes. The district in its current form, established after the 2010 census, has only elected Democrat Bill Keating. However, earlier versions of the 9th district and its predecessors have elected Republicans, including William Delahunt who was initially elected as a Republican in 1996.
The market resolves based on the party affiliation listed on the official ballot for the winning candidate, as certified by the Massachusetts Secretary of State or other authoritative sources like major media networks. The candidate's publicly stated affiliation at the time of the election is used.
If Representative Keating does not seek reelection, the election becomes an open seat contest. This typically attracts more candidates from both parties and can make the race more competitive, as there is no incumbent advantage.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/AkQ7Dw" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="MA-09 House Election Winner"></iframe>