Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?

Name: Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$36.43K

Events

Markets

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Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $36.43K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $36.43K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?	Poly	68%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

68%

Top Probability

$36.43K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face that represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe, maintained since 1947 by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The closer the clock is set to midnight, the closer the scientists believe the world is to global disaster. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Doomsday Clock is set closer to midnight (i.e. closer than 89 seconds to midnight, see https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/#nav_menu) during the yearly meeting

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face that represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe, maintained since 1947 by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The closer the clock is set to midnight, the closer the scientists believe the world is to global disaster.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Doomsday Clock is set closer to midnight (i.e. closer than 89 seconds to midnight, see https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/#nav_menu) during the yearly meeting

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $36.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.0K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 17.84)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $36.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

15d 13h remaining

Jan 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

68¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Anjimx" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?"></iframe>

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Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?

Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?

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Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)