Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

Total Volume

$3.64K

Events

Markets

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SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

Vol

$3.64K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.64K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.64K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $65M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $65M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?	Kalshi	96%
Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $75M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?	Kalshi	93%
Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $85M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?	Kalshi	85%
Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $95M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?	Kalshi	78%
Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $105M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?	Kalshi	71%
Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $125M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?	Kalshi	16%
Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $115M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?	Kalshi	9%
Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $135M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?	Kalshi	9%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$3.64K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Q3 If the Senate Majority PAC's cash on hand is above X million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission, FEC. Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Q3

If the Senate Majority PAC's cash on hand is above X million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission, FEC. Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Senate Majority PAC's cash on hand is above $65 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $65M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $95M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $205
  DATA: [Yes: 78.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $85M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $8
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $75M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 93.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $135M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $43
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $125M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $21
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $115M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $105M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

Volume$3.64K

Markets8

8 of 8

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KALSHI

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $65M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $65M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

If the Senate Majority PAC's cash on hand is above $65 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of t

KALSHI

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $75M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.0¢No 7.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $75M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

If the Senate Majority PAC's cash on hand is above $75 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of t

KALSHI

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $85M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.0¢No 15.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $85M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

If the Senate Majority PAC's cash on hand is above $85 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of t

KALSHI

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $95M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.0¢No 22.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $95M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

If the Senate Majority PAC's cash on hand is above $95 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of t

KALSHI

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $105M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $105M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

If the Senate Majority PAC's cash on hand is above $105 million as of September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of

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57¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/AoRJxw" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)"></iframe>

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SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

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Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $65M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

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Events (1)

SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

Markets (8)

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $65M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $65M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $75M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $75M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $85M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $85M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $95M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $95M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $105M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $105M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

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Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $65M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

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SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $65M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $65M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $75M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $75M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $85M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $85M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $95M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $95M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $105M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

Will the Senate Majority PAC report more than $105M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?

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