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$5.12M
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before 2027 If Ali Khamenei leaves office before X 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the Ali Khamenei will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Ali Khamenei leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price, prior to the death. If a last traded price is not available or is not
Prediction markets currently give about a 38% chance that Ali Khamenei will leave his position as Iran's Supreme Leader before September 2026. In simpler terms, traders collectively see this as somewhat unlikely, roughly a 1 in 3 possibility. This reflects a significant bet against a near-term change in Iran's highest office, but still a notable chance that it could happen.
The odds are shaped by Khamenei's age, the office's structure, and recent regional tensions. At 85, his health is a constant subject of speculation. However, the role of Supreme Leader is designed for longevity, with no fixed term limit, making a planned retirement before death historically unprecedented.
The 38% probability likely accounts for the uncertainty created by his age while acknowledging the system's stability. Recent events, like the 2022 protests and Iran's involvement in regional conflicts, have not visibly shaken his grip on power. The market suggests that while his advanced age makes his departure a real possibility, the political machinery around him is built to maintain continuity until his death.
There are no scheduled elections or constitutional reviews for this position. The main event traders are watching is any official report on Khamenei's health from Iranian state media. A sudden, serious hospitalization would likely shift the odds dramatically.
Other signals include unusual high-level meetings or travel by potential successors, like Khamenei's son Mojtaba or judiciary head Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i. Increased political activity or cryptic statements from the Assembly of Experts, the body tasked with selecting the next leader, could also move the market.
Markets are generally decent at aggregating information on leadership transitions, especially when health is a major factor. They often outperform pundits in forecasting the timing of such events. However, in a closed system like Iran's, key information is tightly controlled. The biggest limitation is that the most important fact, Khamenei's true medical condition, is a state secret. This means the market is trading on rumors and indirect signals, which can sometimes be wrong. The high trading volume, over $4.9 million, shows many people are trying to read those signals.
The Kalshi market "Will Ali Khamenei leave office before September 1, 2026?" is trading at 38 cents, or a 38% probability. This price indicates the market views his departure within the next two years as unlikely, but not impossible. With nearly $5 million in total volume, this is a highly liquid market, suggesting significant trader confidence in the current price point. A 38% chance means the market sees this as a distinct minority outcome, roughly a one-in-three possibility.
The low probability is anchored by Khamenei's entrenched position and Iran's political structure. As Supreme Leader since 1989, he controls the military, judiciary, and media. There is no constitutional mechanism for his removal, and his health, while a subject of speculation, is a state secret. The 38% price likely reflects a small premium for extreme scenarios like a sudden health crisis or an unforeseen internal coup. Historical precedent is also a factor. The last leadership transition occurred only upon the death of his predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, suggesting the system is designed for continuity, not premature change.
Any confirmed, serious deterioration in Khamenei's health would cause this probability to spike dramatically. Given his age of 85, medical events are the primary near-term catalyst. The market would also react to any credible signals of elite fragmentation, such as public dissent from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or the Assembly of Experts, the body technically tasked with selecting and overseeing the Supreme Leader. A sustained, severe domestic uprising that directly challenges the core of theocratic rule could force a reassessment of regime stability, but the market's current pricing suggests traders see this as a remote risk before 2026.
The high trading volume at a stable, low probability shows a consensus that the status quo is the baseline. Traders are effectively paying a small premium for a high-impact, low-probability event. This market functions as a direct bet on the stability of Iran's entire governing system over the next two years. The price is not just about one man's health, it is a real-time assessment of the regime's resilience against all forms of internal collapse or forced transition before the set date.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market addresses whether Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, will leave his position before January 1, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Khamenei vacates office for any reason, including resignation, removal, or death, before that date. An official announcement that he will leave within the following year also triggers a 'Yes' resolution. In the specific case of his death, the market resolves based on the last traded price before the event. Khamenei, born in 1939, has held the position of Supreme Leader since 1989, making him one of the world's longest-serving non-hereditary rulers. The role is the highest authority in Iran's political system, with ultimate command over the military, judiciary, and state media, and significant influence over foreign policy. Speculation about his tenure stems from his advanced age, reported health issues, and the opaque nature of Iran's succession planning. The question of succession is a central political issue within Iran, as the next leader will shape the country's domestic and international trajectory for decades. International observers, regional governments, and financial markets closely monitor this topic due to its potential to trigger significant political realignment in the Middle East.
The position of Supreme Leader was created by the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which overthrew the monarchy of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The constitution established a system of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), granting ultimate authority to a senior cleric. The first Supreme Leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, held the position until his death in 1989. His passing triggered the first and only succession event in the Islamic Republic's history. The Assembly of Experts swiftly selected then-President Ali Khamenei as his successor, despite Khamenei's relatively mid-level clerical rank. This precedent demonstrated the assembly's ability to act quickly and the importance of political loyalty over strict clerical seniority. Khamenei's 35-year reign has seen the consolidation of power within the office, the expansion of the Revolutionary Guards' influence, and persistent tensions with the United States and regional rivals. The lack of a clear, public succession mechanism since 1989 makes the next transition a moment of significant uncertainty for the regime.
The selection of Iran's next Supreme Leader will define the country's political and economic direction for a generation. Domestically, it will signal whether the system will pursue modest reforms to address economic stagnation and social unrest or double down on ideological rigidity. The decision will directly impact the lives of 85 million Iranians, particularly regarding civil liberties and economic opportunity. Internationally, the succession is one of the most significant geopolitical events in the Middle East. A more pragmatic leader could potentially open avenues for diplomatic engagement and de-escalation, while a hardline successor would likely continue confrontational policies, including support for proxy groups and advancement of the nuclear program. Global oil markets are sensitive to this uncertainty, as Iran holds some of the world's largest hydrocarbon reserves. Regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United States will recalibrate their strategies based on the outcome, affecting security dynamics across the region.
As of late 2024, Ali Khamenei remains in office and has made no public indication of plans to step down. He continues to make regular public appearances and speeches, though these are often pre-recorded or conducted while seated. The Assembly of Experts, which would manage the succession, held elections in March 2024, resulting in a body still dominated by hardline conservatives loyal to Khamenei. Discussions about potential successors remain tightly controlled within elite clerical and military circles, with no official candidates declared. International media and intelligence agencies continue to analyze Khamenei's health, but the Iranian government maintains that he is in good condition.
The Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of clerics elected by the public, is responsible for appointing the Supreme Leader. In practice, candidates are vetted for ideological loyalty by the Guardian Council, and the final choice is made through consensus among the regime's elite power centers, including the Revolutionary Guards.
Constitutionally, the Assembly of Experts has the authority to dismiss a Supreme Leader if he is deemed incapable of fulfilling his duties. However, this has never occurred. The political and security apparatus built around the office makes any forced removal extremely unlikely.
No official candidates exist. Frequently mentioned names include President Ebrahim Raisi, the Supreme Leader's son Mojtaba Khamenei, and senior clerics like Alireza Arafi and Ahmad Khatami. The final decision will result from negotiations within the clerical and military establishment.
The constitution mandates that a leadership council consisting of the president, head of the judiciary, and a cleric from the Guardian Council temporarily assume duties. The Assembly of Experts must then convene to select a new Supreme Leader as quickly as possible, likely within days.
Perceived weakness or illness in the leader can intensify internal power struggles as factions position themselves for succession. This can lead to policy paralysis on major issues or, conversely, more aggressive posturing by hardliners seeking to demonstrate strength during a period of uncertainty.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
4 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Ali Khamenei leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z? | Kalshi | 34% |
Will Ali Khamenei leave office before 2026-07-01T14:00:00.000Z? | Kalshi | 27% |
Will Ali Khamenei leave office before 2026-04-01T14:00:00.000Z? | Kalshi | 18% |
Will Ali Khamenei leave office before 2026-03-01T15:00:00.000Z? | Kalshi | 9% |
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