Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?

Name: Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?
End: 2026-03-05T22:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.45K

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Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?

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Polymarket

markets · $2.45K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.45K

100%

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1 market tracked

Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?	Poly	86%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

86%

Top Probability

$2.45K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

As of market creation, Costco is estimated to release earnings on March 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Costco's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.54 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Costco reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.54 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Costco releases earnings wit

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, March 2, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 5, 2026 (4 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** As of market creation, Costco is estimated to release earnings on March 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Costco's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.54 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Costco reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.54 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Costco releases earnings wit

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"As of market creation, Costco is estimated to release earnings on March 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Costco's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.54 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Costco reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.54 for the relevant quarter in it"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.80)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 5, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

3d 14h remaining

Mar 05, 2026 10:00 PM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

86¢

Polymarket

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Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?

Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?

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Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)