More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? | PredictPedia

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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?

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More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?

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More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?

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Market	Platform	Price
More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?	Kalshi	50%

AI Analysis

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50%

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About This Event

In 2026 If the total number of layoffs and discharges in the Professional and Business Services sector during calendar year 2026 is greater than 5,497,000, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will use FRED series JTU540099LDL, “Layoffs and Discharges: Total Nonfarm: Professional and Business Services, Level in Thousands, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted." This market will close and expire early upon the first BLS release of the December 2026 layoffs and discharges value for Professiona

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If the total number of layoffs and discharges in the Professional and Business Services sector during calendar year 2026 is greater than 5,497,000, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will use FRED series JTU540099LDL, “Layoffs and Discharges: Total Nonfarm: Professional and Business Services, Level in Thousands, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted." This market will close and expire early upon the first BLS release of the December 2026 layoffs and discharges value for Professiona

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the total number of layoffs and discharges in the Professional and Business Services sector during calendar year 2026 is greater than 5,497,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market will use FRED series JTU540099LDL, “Layoffs and Discharges: Total Nonfarm: Professional an"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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50¢

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More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?

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About This Event

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Events (1)