Name: Highest temperature in NYC on April 15?
End: 2026-04-15T12:00:00.000Z

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Highest temperature in NYC on April 15? | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $215.66K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $215.66K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 15?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 15?	Poly	97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 15?	Poly	3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on April 15?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on April 15?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on April 15?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on April 15?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 98°F or higher on April 15?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$215.66K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle betwee

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in NYC on April 15?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 15, 2026 (0 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle betwee

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $134.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.3K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 11.83)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 15, 2026): Vol $35.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 15, 2026): Vol $30.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on April 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 15, 2026): Vol $24.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on April 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 15, 2026): Vol $16.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on April 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 15, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on April 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 15, 2026): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in New York City be 98°F or higher on April 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 15, 2026): Vol $15.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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