Solana Up or Down - October 31, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 31, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This market covers one event, "Solana Up or Down - October 31, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET" [1]. The source says it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the SOL/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the source states that the market is "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-31T05:15:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, so readers comparing against a local clock should convert carefully. A listed close time is a contract setting, not a record that the market has closed or resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z, and our system retrieved the source at 2026-10-30T12:53:57.726Z [1]. These are two different times, and both are earlier than the contract's listed end time. At that observation, the status was "active" [1].
The saved quotes were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.000, but this does not establish a tradable spread. The evidence does not include volume, bid and ask data, or trader counts, so it cannot show how deep or liquid the market was.
Coverage is complete for this saved event: one market was reported and one was included, with no partial sample [1]. Because this is a single binary market, no other outcomes are being compared. The result is a near even split between the two outcomes at that moment, and nothing in the evidence explains why.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show how the Solana TWAP moved after the observation, and it does not say whether the market has since closed or resolved. The snapshot is also not a current price for today. Readers comparing this with a contract on another platform should check the wording, time window, and listed close time first, since a similar title may use a different resolution source or threshold. A difference in price between different contracts is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 31, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window price market titled Solana Up or Down, covering October 31, 1:00AM to 1:15AM ET, listed on Polymarket [1]. The saved record shows the market with an active provider status [1]. The contract asks whether Solana's price, measured over the stated window, ends up or down compared with where it started. The resolution rule compares two values. The market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. Because the measure is an average over the window rather than only the price at the end, the result depends on the whole price path during those 15 minutes, not just the final moment [1]. The price input is specified narrowly. The resolution source is the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream with 60-second intervals [1]. The contract states that only this Chainlink data stream counts, not other sources or spot markets [1]. Traders reading prices from other venues should therefore keep in mind that those venues do not determine the outcome under these rules. The listed end time is 2026-10-31 05:15 UTC [1]. This is a time written in the contract rules, not a separately announced event. The saved record was observed at 12:00 UTC on October 30, 2026, so it describes the contract's status at that time only. The record does not show any resolution outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Solana's TWAP over a 15-minute window, as reported by a specified Chainlink data stream, is at least as high as the price at the start of that window [1]. It turns a short-term price movement into a yes or no style outcome with two named results, Up and Down [1]. Because the outcome is fixed to one data stream and one time range, the contract's result is defined by those rules rather than by any broader view of Solana's market price [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Up mean in this market?
The market resolves to Up if the TWAP of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What does Down mean in this market?
If the TWAP over the stated range is not greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, the market resolves to Down [1].
Which price source determines the result?
The resolution source is the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream with 60-second intervals, and the contract says other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
When does the contract end?
The listed end time in the saved record is 2026-10-31 05:15 UTC [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Same-question pairs
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