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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Highest temperature in Paris on May 3?

Name: Highest temperature in Paris on May 3?
End: 2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$7.16K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest temperature in Paris on May 3?

Vol

$7.16K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $7.16K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.16K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3?	Poly	39%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 3?	Poly	24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3?	Poly	22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 3?	Poly	10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 3?	Poly	7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 3?	Poly	4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 3?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on May 3?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 3?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 3?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on May 3?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

39%

Top Probability

$7.16K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Paris on May 3?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.

To t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for al"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $33.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.22)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $866
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $466
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $165
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $351
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $535
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $956
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $677
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $749
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $751
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $533
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate