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$3.43K
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This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the p
Prediction markets currently price a Republican victory in the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election as a near certainty. The leading market, "Will the Republicans win the Idaho governor race in 2026?" on Polymarket, is trading at 97 cents, implying a 97% probability. This price indicates the market views the outcome as virtually assured, with only a 3% chance of an upset by a Democratic or third-party candidate. The total trading volume is thin at approximately $3,000, suggesting limited capital is needed to maintain this consensus view in a low-liquidity environment.
Two dominant factors explain the extreme market confidence. First, Idaho's profound partisan lean is the primary driver. The state has not elected a Democratic governor since Cecil Andrus left office in 1995, and recent presidential and statewide elections have been Republican landslides. In the 2022 gubernatorial race, Republican Brad Little won re-election with over 60% of the vote. Second, the current political environment offers no indication of a shift. Governor Little remains popular within the state, and the Idaho Republican Party holds supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature, demonstrating entrenched one-party control. The market is effectively pricing Idaho's deep-red political identity as the overwhelming determinant.
While the market sees minimal risk, two scenarios could theoretically impact the odds. A significant scandal involving the eventual Republican nominee could temporarily depress confidence, though the state's partisan makeup would likely still favor the GOP. More consequentially, a contentious and divisive Republican primary could produce a nominee perceived as too extreme for the general electorate, potentially creating a narrow opening for a unified opposition candidate. However, no specific candidate declarations or major events are currently on the horizon to challenge the dominant narrative. The odds may see minor fluctuations as the election approaches and nominees are selected, but a fundamental repricing would require a seismic and unforeseen shift in Idaho's political landscape.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election, which will determine who will serve as the state's chief executive from January 2027. The election will be held on November 3, 2026, with the winner succeeding the current governor, Brad Little, who is term-limited and cannot run for re-election. The market resolves based on which candidate receives the most votes and is certified as the winner by the Idaho Secretary of State. The race is expected to be a significant political event, as Idaho has not had an open gubernatorial contest since 2018, and the outcome will shape state policy on issues like taxation, education, and natural resource management for the next four years. Interest in the market stems from Idaho's status as a reliably Republican state in federal elections, though Democratic candidates have occasionally won statewide office in the past, creating uncertainty about potential shifts in the political landscape. Observers are watching to see if national political trends will influence this state-level race and whether any independent or third-party candidates could play a decisive role.
Idaho's gubernatorial elections have been dominated by the Republican Party for decades. The last Democratic governor was Cecil Andrus, who served from 1971 to 1977 and again from 1987 to 1995. Andrus was a popular figure known for his conservation stance, but since his retirement, Democrats have struggled to win the office. In the 21st century, Republicans have won every gubernatorial election, often by substantial margins. For example, in 2022, incumbent Brad Little defeated Democrat Stephen Heidt by approximately 20 percentage points. The 2018 election, which was an open seat contest, saw Little defeat Democrat Paulette Jordan by about 20 points as well. This historical pattern establishes Idaho as one of the most Republican states in the nation for gubernatorial politics. However, open seat elections like the upcoming 2026 race can sometimes be more competitive, as there is no incumbent advantage. The last time an open seat election was truly close was in 1994, when Republican Phil Batt defeated Democrat Larry EchoHawk by just over 5,000 votes. This historical precedent suggests that while Republicans are favored, a well-funded and strategically savvy Democratic campaign could potentially make the race more interesting than recent landslides have indicated.
The outcome of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election will have significant consequences for state policy and the lives of Idaho's 1.9 million residents. The governor sets the budget priorities, appoints heads of state agencies, and can sign or veto legislation passed by the Republican-controlled legislature. Key issues at stake include the future of the state's income tax, which has been progressively reduced in recent years, and funding for public schools and infrastructure. The election also matters for national politics as a barometer of Republican strength in a solidly red state. A competitive race or an unexpected outcome could signal shifting political dynamics in the Mountain West region. Furthermore, the governor plays a crucial role in managing the state's natural resources, including water rights and public lands, which are vital to Idaho's agricultural and recreational economies. The winner will also oversee the implementation of new legislative districts following the 2030 census, influencing state politics for the next decade.
As of late 2024, the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial race is in its earliest stages, with no official candidates having declared their intention to run. Potential Republican candidates are likely engaging in behind-the-scenes fundraising and coalition-building ahead of expected primary contests. The Idaho Democratic Party is beginning the process of identifying potential nominees who could mount a credible campaign in the challenging political environment. Political action committees and donor networks are starting to assess the field. The most recent development is ongoing speculation in state political circles about whether Lieutenant Governor Scott Bedke or Attorney General Raúl Labrador will formally enter the race, with both considered frontrunners for the Republican nomination if they run.
The election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The primary election to select party nominees will likely be held in May 2026, with the exact date set by state election officials.
As of late 2024, no candidates have officially declared their candidacy. Several prominent Idaho Republicans, including Lieutenant Governor Scott Bedke and Attorney General Raúl Labrador, are widely considered potential candidates. The Democratic nominee has not yet been determined.
No, Governor Brad Little is term-limited. Idaho law prohibits governors from serving more than two consecutive four-year terms. Little was elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022, making him ineligible to run in 2026.
Key issues will likely include state tax policy, funding for public education and infrastructure, management of water resources and public lands, and economic development. These are perennial topics in Idaho politics that differentiate candidates.
Idaho has voted for Republican candidates in every gubernatorial election since 1994. The last Democratic governor left office in 1995. Republicans typically win by double-digit margins, though open seat elections can sometimes be more competitive.
Independent candidates for governor in Idaho must submit a petition signed by a number of registered voters equal to at least 1% of the total votes cast for the office at the last general election. For 2026, this will be based on the 2022 gubernatorial election turnout, requiring approximately 2,900 valid signatures.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 97% |
 | Poly | 3% |
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