Skip to main content
Market snapshot: . Prices may have changed since this snapshot.
Events
GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Pro Football: 2026-27 Passing Touchdowns Leader

Pro Football: 2026-27 Passing Touchdowns Leader
Vol

PM $77.0K · K 530.8K contracts

|
Events

4

|
Markets

117

Polymarket vs Kalshi

Snapshot from

As of Nov 11, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, Joe Burrow is priced at 35% on Polymarket and 47.5% on Kalshi.

Outcome (Yes price)PolymarketKalshiGap
Joe BurrowSame question, fine print differs35%47.5%12.5 pts
Jordan LoveSame question, fine print differs30.5%28.5%2.0 pts
Jared GoffSame question, fine print differs11%9%2.0 pts
Matthew StaffordSame question, fine print differs8%5.5%2.5 pts
Brock PurdySame question, fine print differs2.6%6%3.4 pts
Josh AllenSame question, fine print differs5.5%1%4.5 pts
Sam DarnoldSame question, fine print differs4.9%0.5%4.4 pts
Tyler ShoughSame question, fine print differs4.5%0.5%4.0 pts

Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $77.0K · K 530.8K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

117

Saved contracts

50

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 11, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve in favor of the player that finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player with more passing yards during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher completion percentage during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the 2026-27 NFL season concludes early, is shortened, or is truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available NFL statistics for completed games. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player led the NFL in passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.

Snapshot observed 2026-11-04T21:00:06.248Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event on Polymarket, "Pro Football: 2026-27 Passing Touchdowns Leader," covers which player finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns [1]. Each listed contract asks whether one named player will finish first. Ties go to the player with more passing yards, then to the higher completion percentage. If a tie still persists, the market resolves to "Other" [1].

The rules also resolve to "Other" if the regular season is cancelled, or if "postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET," or if "it is unclear which player led the NFL in passing touchdowns within that timeframe" [1]. If the season ends early, the outcome uses "available NFL statistics for completed games" [1]. The stated resolution source is "official information from the NFL," though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].

The listed end times differ across contracts. Some show 2027-01-12T23:59:00.000Z and others show 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. These are listed close times in the snapshot, not announced event dates. A listed close time is also distinct from the actual resolution, which depends on the season's results and the rules above.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-11-04T21:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-05T00:37:43Z [1]. These values describe that moment only. They are not live quotes and should not be read as current today.

Among the included contracts, Joe Burrow's Yes price is 0.395 and Trevor Lawrence's is 0.122 [1]. Matthew Stafford's Yes price is 0.095, Jared Goff's is 0.065, and Jordan Love's is 0.064 [1]. Each contract is a separate binary market, so its Yes and No prices describe that one player only. Prices are not verified probabilities, and differences between contracts should not be treated as arbitrage opportunities.

What remains uncertain

This sample is partial. The provider event has 35 markets, and only 12 are included [1]. The inclusion rule ranks markets by Yes price, then by volume, and keeps the top 12 [1]. The omitted 23 markets are not shown, so this report cannot describe them or claim the full field.

The snapshot does not explain why any price moved, and it does not show trader counts or liquidity. The volume rule is only an ordering criterion, not evidence of depth. No recent news or outcomes are in the supplied evidence.

References

  1. Polymarket: Pro Football: 2026-27 Passing Touchdowns Leader. Provider data observed 2026-11-04T21:00:06.248Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Nov 5, 2026 UTC

This saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.

Overview

This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event titled "Pro Football: 2026-27 Passing Touchdowns Leader" [1]. The event is built around a single question: which player will finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns. According to the provider's contract rules, the market resolves in favor of that player [1]. A passing touchdown is a pass that results in a touchdown, either caught and advanced into the end zone or caught within its boundaries [2][3]. The rules include several tie-breakers. If two players tie for the most passing touchdowns, the market resolves in favor of the tied player with more passing yards during the regular season. If that is still tied, the player with the higher completion percentage is used. If a tie still remains, the market resolves to an "Other" outcome [1]. The contract also covers disruption. If the season ends early, is shortened, or is truncated for any reason, the outcome is to be determined from available NFL statistics for completed games. If the regular season is cancelled, is postponed after January 26, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, or leaves it unclear which player led the league in passing touchdowns within that window, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The stated resolution source is official NFL information, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The market data in this entry is a partial sample. The saved provider event lists 35 markets, and 12 are included here, selected by the highest finite Yes price, with volume used as a secondary ordering [1]. Prices in the sample are snapshots and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The omitted markets are not shown, so this entry does not describe the full field or compare rankings across other events. In the sample, the highest Yes price belongs to the market asking whether Joe Burrow will finish with the most passing touchdowns, at 0.395 [1]. Other included players carry lower Yes prices, from 0.122 for Trevor Lawrence down to 0.035 for Josh Allen [1]. These figures describe the saved provider snapshot only.

Historical Context

Passing touchdowns are a long-recorded statistic in football games [2][3]. The league's overall passing touchdown leaders include players from the American Football League, which operated from 1960 to 1969 before merging with the NFL in 1970 [2][3]. In 2025 the NFL announced it would recognize records from the All-America Football Conference, which operated from 1946 to 1949 before three of its teams merged into the NFL [2][3]. The NFL did not begin keeping official records until the 1932 season [3]. These sources describe historical record-keeping and do not describe the 2026-27 season.

Why It Matters

The contract measures one season-end outcome: which player records the most passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season [1]. Because the question depends on a full regular season's official statistics, the resolution depends on the season being completed and on how the tie-breakers and disruption rules are applied [1]. Anyone reading the market prices should keep in mind that they are snapshots from one provider event and that the sample is partial [1].

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-04 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

Who does this market resolve in favor of?

The market resolves in favor of the player who finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns [1].

What happens if two players are tied for the most passing touchdowns?

The tie is broken first by passing yards, then by completion percentage. If a tie still remains, the market resolves to an Other outcome [1].

What happens if the season is shortened or cancelled?

If the season ends early, is shortened, or is truncated, the outcome is determined from available NFL statistics for completed games. If the regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, or the leader cannot be determined in that window, the market resolves to Other [1].

What source determines the result?

The stated resolution source is official information from the NFL, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].

Why do the listed end times differ between markets?

The saved provider data lists different end times for different player markets, including January 12, 2027 and January 27, 2027 [1]. These are listed end times in the provider data, not announced events, and they do not by themselves describe when the season will conclude.

Do the prices show the chance that a player will lead the league?

No. The prices are snapshots from one provider event and come from a partial sample of 12 of 35 markets. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].

Was this helpful?
Saved Nov 5, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiSports
Pro Football: 25+ Passing Touchdowns Season

Pro Football: 25+ Passing Touchdowns Season

K 10.6K contracts
Will Joe Burrow record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?Yes 92.5%
Will Trevor Lawrence record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?Yes 90%
Will Brock Purdy record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?Yes 87.5%
+29 moreNext deadline Feb 2, 2027 UTC
KalshiSports
Pro Football: 20+ Passing Touchdowns Season

Pro Football: 20+ Passing Touchdowns Season

K 9.2K contracts
Will Trevor Lawrence record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?Yes 93%
Will Drake Maye record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?Yes 92.5%
Will C.J. Stroud record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?Yes 92.5%
+28 moreNext deadline Feb 2, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiSports
Pro Football All-Purpose Yards Leader

Pro Football All-Purpose Yards Leader

PM $66.3K · K 687.7K contracts

Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receiving yards?

Kalshi: Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba lead Pro Football in all-purpose yards for the 2026-27 regular season?

Related contracts

PM Yes 57.5%Rules differK Yes 5.5%

Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receiving yards?

Kalshi: Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba lead Pro Football in Receiving Yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 57.5%Rules differK Yes 55%

Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receiving touchdowns?

Kalshi: Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba lead Pro Football in Receiving Yards for the 2026-2027 regular season?

Related contracts

PM Yes 41%Rules differK Yes 55%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

77 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 12, 2027 UTC
KalshiSports
Pro Football: 30+ Passing Touchdowns Season

Pro Football: 30+ Passing Touchdowns Season

K 9.1K contracts
Will Joe Burrow record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?Yes 90%
Will Jordan Love record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?Yes 70%
Will Trevor Lawrence record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?Yes 69%
+21 moreNext deadline Feb 2, 2027 UTC
KalshiSports
Pro Football: 35+ Passing Touchdowns Season

Pro Football: 35+ Passing Touchdowns Season

K 1.9K contracts
Will Jordan Love record 35+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?Yes 68%
Will Lamar Jackson record 35+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?Yes 42.5%
Will Justin Herbert record 35+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?Yes 42.5%
+13 moreNext deadline Feb 2, 2027 UTC
PolymarketSports
Pro Football: 2026-27 Week 10 Passing Touchdowns Leader

Pro Football: 2026-27 Week 10 Passing Touchdowns Leader

PM $0
Will Josh Allen finish Week 10 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns?Yes 50%
Will Kyle Allen finish Week 10 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns?Yes 50%
Will Malik Willis finish Week 10 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns?Yes 50%
+61 moreNext deadline Nov 17, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

19

Same-question pairs

50

Largest saved gap: 12.5 percentage points.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.