Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T06:00:06.244Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The event asks who will hold the top position in Iran at the end of 2026. The rules say the market "will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET" [1]. The rules also define "de facto holds" as the person who "exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or" [1]. The excerpt is truncated at that point, so the full wording should be checked at the source.

Each individual name is a separate yes or no contract within the same event. The listed end time is 2026-12-31T17:00:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the contract close, not a confirmed resolution, and this snapshot does not show any resolution.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-15T06:00:06.244Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T07:45:45.527Z [1]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

In the included contracts, the "Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" market shows Yes at 0.872 and No at 0.128 [1]. The "Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?" market shows Yes at 0.045 [1]. The "Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" market shows Yes at 0.0285 [1]. Other included names range from 0.0015 to 0.01 on the Yes side [1].

The sample is partial. Of 30 markets in this provider event, 12 are included [1]. The selection ranks markets by Yes price, so omitted contracts are not known to have lower prices than those shown. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or trader count, and this evidence does not report either.

Do not average these prices or compare them with other platforms. Differences in wording, close times, or sample coverage can make apparent gaps misleading.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why any price changed or whether traders agree. It does not include recent news about Iran's leadership. It does not state an official announcement, a resolution date beyond the contract rule, or the status of the 18 omitted markets. The snapshot cannot show whether the displayed prices will still hold after the observation time.

References

1. Polymarket: Iran leader end of 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T06:00:06.244Z.