Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets are pricing in a low probability of regime change in Iran by the January 31, 2026 deadline. The "Yes" share trades at approximately 10¢, indicating the market assigns only a 10% chance that the Islamic Republic's core ruling structures will be overthrown or dissolved. This price suggests traders view a near-term collapse as very unlikely, though not entirely impossible given the non-zero probability.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

The low probability is anchored by the regime's demonstrated resilience and coercive capacity. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains firm control over security and the economy, having systematically suppressed past waves of popular protest, most notably the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement that began in 2022. Furthermore, the regime's ideological and institutional structures, particularly the office of the Supreme Leader and the Guardian Council, show no signs of imminent internal fracture or coup. Geopolitically, regional tensions have often bolstered the regime's narrative of being under siege, allowing it to consolidate power among its base.

What Could Change These Odds

A dramatic shift in odds would require an unforeseen catalyst that fundamentally breaks the regime's security apparatus or unity. Potential black swan events include a severe internal split within the IRGC or the ruling clergy, a major escalation in regional conflict that critically destabilizes the state, or a sudden, widespread economic collapse that sparks unrest beyond the security forces' ability to contain. The death or incapacitation of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, now 85, could be a pivotal event, though the system has succession plans. However, with the resolution deadline in just 16 days, the window for such a transformative event to occur and be recognized by market resolvers is exceedingly narrow, which is a primary reason the "Yes" probability remains in the single digits.