This prediction market focuses on whether any additional country will formally join the Abraham Accords, a series of bilateral agreements normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel and Arab states, by March 31, 2026. The Accords, first announced in August 2020, represent a significant geopolitical realignment in the Middle East, moving away from the long-standing Arab League position of non-recognition of Israel without a resolution to the Palestinian issue. The market specifically resolves to 'Yes' if a country not already part of the Accords signs an official normalization agreement publicly acknowledged by both governments and attributed to the Abraham Accords framework. The core interest stems from monitoring the potential expansion of this diplomatic initiative, which has already reshaped regional alliances and economic partnerships. Observers are closely watching several nations, particularly in the Gulf and North Africa, for signs of impending negotiations. The outcome is seen as a barometer for the durability and appeal of the normalization model championed by the United States under the Trump administration and continued, albeit with different emphasis, by the Biden administration. The deadline of March 2026 provides a concrete timeframe to assess the momentum of this foreign policy endeavor.

Historical Context

The Abraham Accords emerged from a decades-long backdrop of incremental, often secret, cooperation between Israel and some Arab states, primarily focused on shared security threats. The foundational peace treaties were Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994, which remained isolated exceptions for over 25 years. The geopolitical landscape began shifting in the 2010s due to the perceived rise of Iranian influence, the decline of the Palestinian issue as a unifying Arab cause, and growing economic and technological opportunities with Israel. The formal breakthrough came on September 15, 2020, when the United States brokered the signing of normalization agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain at the White House. Sudan and Morocco followed suit in late 2020, though their agreements differed in scope and context. These Accords marked a historic departure from the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which made normalization contingent on a Palestinian state. The success of these initial signings created a new diplomatic template and immediate speculation about which nations might be next in line, setting the stage for the current prediction market question.

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