Market snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsClimate

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Name: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Reported volume

PM $8.13M · K 627.8K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Vol

PM $8.13M · K 627.8K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Provider overview

polymarket

$8.13M

Reported lifetime volume

kalshi

627.8K contracts

Reported lifetime volume

Reviewed equivalent pairs

No eligible price comparison

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Price ChartContract price history

12 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

No data available

Include related or unreviewed contracts

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with usable prices. You can inspect related contracts, but their prices do not measure the same outcome.

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 4 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 4 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Measles cases in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-12-31T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $8.13M · K 627.8K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $8.13M · K 627.8K contracts
Coverage: 16 of 16 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will there be more than 5000 measles cases in 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMEASLES-26-5000; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmeasles-26
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 97.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 3.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of measles in 2026 is above 5000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

Contract: Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-716941; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-at-least-5000-measles-cases-in-the-us-in-2026-436-426-345-291
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $338.7K
Outcome Yes: 97.9%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 2.1%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Contract: Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMEASLES-26-6000; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmeasles-26
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 290.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 83.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 16.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of measles in 2026 is above 6000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

Contract: Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5007985; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-at-least-6000-measles-cases-in-the-uptspt-in-2026-954
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $19.0K
Outcome Yes: 89.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 10.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Contract: Will there be more than 7000 measles cases in 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMEASLES-26-7000; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmeasles-26
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 56.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 44.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of measles in 2026 is above 7000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

Contract: Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5329257; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-at-least-7000-measles-cases-in-the-uptspt-in-2026
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.6K
Outcome Yes: 54.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 46.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Contract: Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMEASLES-26-10000; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmeasles-26
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 165.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 10.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of measles in 2026 is above 10000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

Contract: Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-716942; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-at-least-10000-measles-cases-in-the-us-in-2026-418-668-617-245-787-217
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $6.53M
Outcome Yes: 7.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.7%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Contract: Will there be more than 9000 measles cases in 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMEASLES-26-9000; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmeasles-26
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 25.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 75.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of measles in 2026 is above 9000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

Contract: Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMEASLES-26-8000; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmeasles-26
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 171.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 28.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 71.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of measles in 2026 is above 8000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

Contract: Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3518090; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-at-least-4500-measles-cases-in-the-uptspt-in-2026-20260811165941230
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $5.3K
Outcome Yes: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Contract: Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-4185650; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-at-least-4750-measles-cases-in-the-uptspt-in-2026
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $65.0K
Outcome Yes: 99.7%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 0.4%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Contract: Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5329258; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-at-least-5500-measles-cases-in-the-uptspt-in-2026
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.1K
Outcome Yes: 94.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 5.6%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Contract: Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5329259; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-at-least-6500-measles-cases-in-the-uptspt-in-2026
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $4.0K
Outcome Yes: 72.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 27.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Contract: Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-1250830; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-at-least-7500-measles-cases-in-the-us-in-2026-287-181-314-511-633
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $214.8K
Outcome Yes: 28.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 71.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Contract: Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-1250957; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-at-least-12500-measles-cases-in-the-us-in-2026-512-499-859-689-415
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $359.2K
Outcome Yes: 6.2%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 93.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-5007985 / kalshi-KXMEASLES-26-6000: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-12-31T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 17, 2026, 12:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 4 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Measles cases in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-12-31T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-716942 / kalshi-KXMEASLES-26-10000: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-12-31T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 17, 2026, 12:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 4 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Measles cases in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-12-31T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5329257 / kalshi-KXMEASLES-26-7000: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will there be more than 7000 measles cases in 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-12-31T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 17, 2026, 12:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 4 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Measles cases in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-12-31T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-716941 / kalshi-KXMEASLES-26-5000: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will there be more than 5000 measles cases in 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-12-31T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 17, 2026, 12:04 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 4 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Measles cases in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-12-31T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Measles cases in 2026?

In 2026 If the number of measles in 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

Volume$627.83K

Markets6

POLYMARKETClimate

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Volume$8.13M

Markets10

12 of 12

Sort:

Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

polymarket

Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Yes: >99.9¢
No: <0.1¢

Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

polymarket

Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Yes: 99.7¢
No: 0.4¢

Will there be more than 5000 measles cases in 2026?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will there be more than 5000 measles cases in 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-12-31T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 00:04:45 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will there be more than 5000 measles cases in 2026?

Yes: 97.0¢
No: 3.0¢

polymarket

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Yes: 97.9¢
No: 2.1¢

Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

polymarket

Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Yes: 94.4¢
No: 5.6¢

Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-12-31T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 00:04:45 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?

Yes: 83.5¢
No: 16.5¢

polymarket

Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Yes: 89.5¢
No: 10.5¢

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Jan 01, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

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Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/BAhqD0" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?"></iframe>

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Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

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kalshi

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Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

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Measles cases in 2026?

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

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Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be more than 5000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?

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polymarket

kalshi

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Price ChartContract price history

Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

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Saved matching review

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Measles cases in 2026?

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be more than 5000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?

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