Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Name: Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.81M

Events

Markets

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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Vol

$2.81M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.81M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.81M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?	Poly	46%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?	Poly	45%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?	Poly	21%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Poly	7%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026	Poly	3%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

46%

Top Probability

$2.81M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of cre

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (82 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of cre

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately r"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.42M
* **Total Liquidity:** $282.9K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.56)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.26M
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $143.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 1, 2026): Vol $11.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics