$26.81K
1
9
$26.81K
1
9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/dail
Prediction markets currently give the highest temperature in Atlanta on February 28 only a 37% chance of landing between 68 and 69 degrees Fahrenheit. This means traders collectively see this specific outcome as somewhat unlikely, estimating roughly a 1 in 3 chance. The market is essentially saying the weather is more probable to be either cooler or warmer than that narrow two-degree window. With over $62,000 wagered across several related temperature questions, a niche group of traders is actively betting on the day's forecast.
Two main factors are likely shaping these odds. First, late February weather in Atlanta is historically variable. The average high temperature around this date is typically in the upper 50s to low 60s, so a high in the upper 60s would be unseasonably warm. The market's skepticism toward the 68-69°F bracket may reflect that statistical norm.
Second, traders are probably analyzing specific short-term forecast models. If leading weather projections from services like the National Weather Service show a strong cold front or a persistent warm spell, the market odds would shift to reflect that new data. The current probability suggests forecast models are not consistently pointing to that exact temperature band, leaving room for other outcomes.
The key event is simply the day itself, February 28. The most important signals will be the evolving weather forecasts in the final 3-5 days leading up to the date. Major updates from the National Weather Service or notable shifts in the European and American weather models could significantly move the probabilities. The market will resolve quickly once the official high temperature is recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport and verified by Wunderground.
Prediction markets are generally reliable for short-term, clearly defined outcomes like weather, where final data is objective and timely. For temperature forecasts a few days out, markets often aggregate weather models and crowd sentiment effectively. However, the reliability here has a clear limit: weather remains inherently unpredictable. A sudden, unforeseen shift in storm tracks or air masses could easily make the market wrong. These markets are best viewed as a snapshot of collective, informed guessing based on the latest available data, not a guaranteed forecast.
Prediction markets assign the highest probability, 37%, to the temperature reaching 68-69°F. This indicates a slight preference for that specific range, but the market is highly uncertain. No other single outcome holds a commanding lead. The combined probability for temperatures at or above 70°F is roughly 45%, suggesting a warmer day is seen as slightly more likely than a cooler one. With only $62,000 in total volume spread thinly across nine outcome buckets, the market lacks deep liquidity, making prices more susceptible to noise than a strong consensus.
The pricing reflects Atlanta's highly variable late-winter climate. Historical data for February 28 shows a wide temperature distribution, with records spanning from the 20s to the low 80s Fahrenheit. The current forecast window is too distant for reliable modeling, so traders are likely relying on climatological averages. The average high for late February in Atlanta is in the low 60s. The market's tilt toward the upper 60s and 70s may incorporate a mild seasonal bias or recent warm patterns in the Southeast. However, the significant probability spread across multiple outcomes confirms that precise forecasting for a single day this far in advance is nearly impossible.
All meaningful price movement depends on the evolving weather forecast as the date approaches. The market will remain fragmented until reliable short-term models, within a 5-7 day window, begin to converge on a solution. A forecast model run showing a strong surge of warm air from the Gulf of Mexico would rapidly increase probabilities for outcomes above 70°F. Conversely, a model projecting a cold front dipping into the Southeast would shift probability mass to the 50s and 60s ranges. The thin liquidity means even minor forecast updates from sources like the GFS or European models could trigger disproportionate price swings in the days leading up to February 28.
This market functions more as a weather betting novelty than a precise forecasting tool. The nine distinct temperature ranges create excessive fragmentation, preventing concentrated liquidity on any probable outcome. For a city with Atlanta's climate, a binary market on a threshold like "Above 70°F" would likely attract more volume and generate a clearer signal. The current structure, with resolution based on a single airport station reading, also introduces micro-climate risk. A passing cloud or brief shower at the measurement site could determine the outcome between two adjacent buckets, adding noise unrelated to the broader regional forecast.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport on March 2, 2026. The market resolves based on data from Weather Underground, specifically the highest temperature reading for that date at the airport's official weather station. This type of market allows participants to speculate on a specific meteorological outcome, turning a weather forecast into a tradable financial instrument. Interest stems from both meteorological enthusiasts and prediction market traders who analyze historical climate patterns, seasonal forecasts, and short-term weather models to make informed bets. The outcome depends on complex atmospheric conditions, including the position of the jet stream, high-pressure systems over the Southeast, and potential late-winter storm tracks that can influence temperatures in Atlanta. March in Atlanta represents a transitional period where winter cold fronts can still clash with warmer air masses from the Gulf of Mexico, creating significant daily temperature variability. This variability makes the high temperature on a specific date difficult to predict with certainty months in advance, which is precisely what creates a market for predictions. Participants must weigh long-range climate trends against the inherent randomness of daily weather.
Atlanta's climate has shown a clear warming trend over recent decades, which influences the baseline for March temperatures. According to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, the average temperature for March in Atlanta increased by approximately 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit between the 1971-2000 period and the 1991-2020 period. This shift makes historically warm March days more probable. The historical record for Atlanta's highest March temperature is 89 degrees Fahrenheit, set on March 24, 1907. More recently, March 2023 saw a high of 84 degrees. The variability in early March is notable. For example, on March 2, 2022, the high was 73°F, while on March 2, 2018, it was only 48°F. This 25-degree difference on the same calendar date illustrates the challenge of long-range prediction. Major climate patterns like El Niño and La Niña also provide historical context. El Niño winters and early springs, which may be in play for the 2025-2026 season, often correlate with cooler and wetter conditions across the southern U.S., potentially suppressing extreme early warmth. Past events, such as the March 1993 "Storm of the Century," demonstrate how powerful late-winter systems can bring unseasonably cold air to the region, even as the calendar turns to spring.
The outcome of this specific weather prediction has implications beyond the market itself. Accurate long-range temperature forecasts are economically significant for Atlanta, a major logistics and transportation hub. Unseasonable warmth or cold on a given day can affect energy demand for heating and cooling, agricultural planning for early-season crops in Georgia, and scheduling for outdoor events and construction. For the prediction market community, this event is a test of collective forecasting intelligence against both sophisticated numerical weather models and climatological averages. It examines whether a crowd-sourced market can accurately price the probability of a specific, measurable outcome in a complex natural system. A consistent record of market accuracy for such events could support the broader use of prediction markets in other climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, insurance, and energy trading. The result also contributes to public understanding of climate variability, distinguishing between a single day's weather and long-term climate trends.
As of early 2025, long-range seasonal outlooks for the winter and spring of 2026 have not been issued. The prevailing phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the preceding winter will be a primary factor shaping early spring conditions. Current climate models suggest a potential transition toward a neutral ENSO phase by late 2025. The Climate Prediction Center typically releases its preliminary seasonal outlook for March 2026 in the fall of 2025. Until then, traders must rely on climatology and the analysis of analog years with similar ocean temperature patterns. No specific weather forecast for March 2, 2026, can exist until approximately 10-15 days prior to the date, when operational numerical weather prediction models begin to simulate the specific atmospheric setup.
Early March in Atlanta is transitional, with average high temperatures in the low to mid-60s Fahrenheit. Days can vary widely, from unseasonably warm periods in the 70s to cold snaps where temperatures struggle to reach 50. Rainfall is common, with an average of about 4.5 inches for the month.
The official temperature for Atlanta is measured at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport. The sensor is part of an Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) located on airport property, following standards set by the World Meteorological Organization.
Forecast skill for a specific daily high temperature decreases rapidly beyond 10 days. While seasonal outlooks can indicate whether a month will be warmer or cooler than average, predicting the exact temperature for a single day months in advance relies heavily on climatological probabilities rather than deterministic forecasting.
Yes. Studies, including one published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, have shown Atlanta's urban heat island can increase nighttime low temperatures by several degrees. The effect on daily maximum temperatures is generally smaller but still present, particularly on calm, sunny days.
To answer this for a future date, one would consult the verified historical data from the previous year. For example, the high temperature on March 2, 2024, was 66 degrees Fahrenheit at Hartsfield-Jackson airport, according to Weather Underground historical data.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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