Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 21?
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Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 21?
PM $0
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11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks which whole-degree Celsius bracket will contain the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station on 21 October 2026. The resolution source is NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on that day [1]. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If neither has data by then, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed close time, not a confirmed resolution time. The rules say the market resolves once the first data point for the following date is published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, whichever comes first [1]. Erroneous data may keep a market open for up to seven calendar days for a correction [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T06:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:09:08Z [1]. It shows prices for eleven brackets on one Polymarket event. All eleven saved markets are included, and the sample is not partial [1]. Each price is a single snapshot, not an executable quote or a verified probability.
The highest Yes prices in the snapshot are 21°C at 0.295, 20°C at 0.255, "24°C or higher" at 0.23, and 22°C at 0.225 [1]. The "14°C or below" bracket and the 15°C and 16°C brackets each show 0.0205 [1]. Because the Yes prices across all eleven brackets sum to roughly 1.90, these figures do not form a normalized distribution, so they should not be read as a complete probability breakdown.
Each bracket is a separate contract, so differences between them reflect separate prices, not a single ranking of outcomes. The sample includes only this one provider event, so no cross-platform comparison is possible here.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot is about 9 minutes old at retrieval and does not reflect current prices. The evidence does not include volume, trade counts, or depth, so it cannot indicate liquidity or how many participants hold any view. The supplied material also gives no explanation for the price levels or any movement. Whether the saved brackets cover every possible temperature outcome is not established by the source [1].
References
- Polymarket: Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 21?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event titled "Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 21?" [1]. The event is a set of temperature-bracket contracts. Each contract asks whether the highest temperature recorded for a given day will fall within a specific bracket, measured in whole degrees Celsius. The event's rules state that it resolves to the temperature range containing the highest reading recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station on 21 October 2026 [1]. The saved event lists 11 brackets, from a bracket for 14°C or below through brackets for individual degrees up to a bracket for 24°C or higher [1]. The resolution source is NOAA's published time series for that station. The rules direct resolvers to the highest value under the "Temp" column for all times on that day [1]. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used instead [1]. If no data exists for the observation date by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The rules also specify that the Celsius table must be selected, since the source can display Fahrenheit by default [1]. The market is designed to settle once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, whichever comes first [1]. Revisions to temperatures within the timeframe are considered only until that first data point for the next date is published [1]. If the resolution source publishes clearly erroneous data caused by technical or operational error, or by unauthorized interference, the market may stay open for up to seven calendar days in ET to allow for a correction. If no corrected value appears, Polymarket may issue a clarification [1]. The listed end time for the event is 2026-10-21T12:00:00Z [1]. That timestamp is a contract parameter from the rules and does not describe an announced event.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single official observation: the highest temperature recorded at one named airport station on one date, rounded to whole degrees Celsius [1]. Because each bracket is a separate contract, the event lets participants trade on different outcomes for the same station and date. Only the bracket containing the resolved value settles according to the rules, and the rules define the precision and the data source that determine which bracket that is [1]. The resolution mechanics, including the fallback source, the default to the lowest bracket when no data exists, and the correction window, are the parts of the contract that determine how a result is reached [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Wuhan highest temperature market actually measure?
It measures the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station on 21 October 2026, expressed in whole degrees Celsius [1]. Each bracket contract asks whether the resolved value falls within its range [1].
Which data source determines the outcome?
The primary source is NOAA's time series for the station, using the highest value in the "Temp" column for all times on that day [1]. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used [1].
What happens if no data is available for the observation date?
The rules state that if there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
Can the resolved value be corrected after publication?
Yes, within limits. If the resolution source publishes clearly erroneous data due to technical or operational error or unauthorized interference, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days in ET for a correction. If no corrected value is published in that period, Polymarket may issue a clarification [1].
Does a listed end time mean an event happens on that date?
No. The listed end time of 2026-10-21T12:00:00Z is part of the contract data [1]. The contract's rules describe how the market settles from published data, and the date itself is not an announced event [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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