This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory's official weather station on April 14, 2026. The market resolves based on the 'Absolute Daily Max' temperature published in the Observatory's finalized Daily Extract data. This specific metric represents the single highest air temperature reading at the station over the 24-hour period, a standard measurement in climatology. Interest in such a forecast stems from multiple factors, including public planning for outdoor activities, energy demand projections for early spring, and scientific curiosity about weather variability in a subtropical coastal city. April represents a transitional month in Hong Kong's climate, where temperatures can swing between lingering cool spells and early hints of summer heat, making daily maximums particularly variable and challenging to predict. The market allows participants to speculate on whether the day will be unseasonably warm, seasonally typical, or relatively cool based on analysis of historical patterns, prevailing climate phenomena like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and medium-range weather model outputs. The resolution source is the Hong Kong Observatory, the government authority responsible for meteorological records in the territory since 1883, ensuring an official and consistent data standard. The Observatory maintains strict calibration procedures for its thermometers, which are housed in a Stevenson screen at its headquarters in Tsim Sha Tsui, providing a continuous long-term dataset for comparison.

Historical Context

Hong Kong has maintained continuous temperature records at the Observatory headquarters since 1884. Analysis of this 140-year dataset reveals clear trends and variability for the month of April. The long-term average maximum temperature for April is 25.6°C, but daily extremes can deviate significantly from this mean. Historically, April temperatures in Hong Kong are influenced by the retreat of the winter monsoon and the increasing influence of warm, humid maritime air masses from the south. The highest temperature ever recorded in April was 33.4°C on April 23, 1967. More recently, April 2016 saw a maximum of 31.5°C, influenced by a strong El Niño event. In contrast, cool Aprils can occur, with the lowest maximum temperature for the month being 14.3°C recorded on April 1, 1917. The specific date of April 14 has its own historical distribution. Between 1991 and 2020, the average maximum for April 14 was 25.8°C. The hottest April 14 on record was 30.8°C in 2020, while the coolest was 19.0°C in 1996. This historical range of nearly 12 degrees Celsius for the same calendar date illustrates the high variability that makes forecasting challenging. The period from 1991 to 2020 shows a warming trend for mid-April, with the average maximum temperature for April 14 increasing by approximately 0.5°C per decade according to Observatory data.

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