Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

Name: Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$678.80K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

Vol

$678.80K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $678.80K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $678.80K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Poly	43%
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Poly	29%
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Poly	14%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

43%

Top Probability

$678.80K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon). This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the li

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (81 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the li

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $378.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $123.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.06)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $197.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $154.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 1, 2026): Vol $27.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics