Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Midterms: Republican share of Latino vote?

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$205.00

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Midterms: Republican share of Latino vote?

Vol

$205.00

Events

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Kalshi

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Kalshi

markets · $205.00

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Volume DistributionTotal: $205.00

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11 markets tracked

Will Republicans receive above 26% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Republicans receive above 26% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	91%
Will Republicans receive above 28% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	83%
Will Republicans receive above 30% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	65%
Will Republicans receive above 32% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	48%
Will Republicans receive above 34% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	41%
Will Republicans receive above 36% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	34%
Will Republicans receive above 38% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	27%
Will Republicans receive above 40% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	20%
Will Republicans receive above 42% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	15%
Will Republicans receive above 44% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	10%
Will Republicans receive above 46% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	6%

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91%

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$205.00

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About This Event

On Nov 6, 2026 If the Republican share of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage shown in the Republican, or Rep., column of the aggregate Latino, or Hispanic, row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source for 24 hours after that time. If it remains unavail

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Midterms: Republican share of Latino vote?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 6, 2026

If the Republican share of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage shown in the Republican, or Rep., column of the aggregate Latino, or Hispanic, row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source for 24 hours after that time. If it remains unavail

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Republican share of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 26%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Latino (or Hispanic) row in the national U.S. House exit poll tab"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $205
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Republicans receive above 26% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Republicans receive above 46% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Republicans receive above 44% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Republicans receive above 42% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Republicans receive above 40% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $205
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Republicans receive above 38% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Republicans receive above 36% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Republicans receive above 34% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Republicans receive above 32% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Republicans receive above 30% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 64.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Republicans receive above 28% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Midterms: Republican share of Latino vote?

Volume$205.00

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KALSHI

Will Republicans receive above 26% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans receive above 26% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 26%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Latino (or Hispanic) row in the national U.S. House exit poll tab

KALSHI

Will Republicans receive above 28% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.5¢No 17.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans receive above 28% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 28%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Latino (or Hispanic) row in the national U.S. House exit poll tab

KALSHI

Will Republicans receive above 30% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 64.5¢No 35.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans receive above 30% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 30%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Latino (or Hispanic) row in the national U.S. House exit poll tab

KALSHI

Will Republicans receive above 32% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.5¢No 52.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans receive above 32% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 32%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Latino (or Hispanic) row in the national U.S. House exit poll tab

KALSHI

Will Republicans receive above 34% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 40.5¢No 59.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans receive above 34% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 34%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Latino (or Hispanic) row in the national U.S. House exit poll tab

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Midterms: Republican share of Latino vote?

Midterms: Republican share of Latino vote?

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Will Republicans receive above 26% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Events (1)

Midterms: Republican share of Latino vote?

Markets (11)

Will Republicans receive above 26% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 26% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 28% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 28% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 30% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 30% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 32% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 32% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 34% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 34% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Will Republicans receive above 26% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Midterms: Republican share of Latino vote?

Will Republicans receive above 26% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 26% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 28% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 28% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 30% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 30% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 32% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 32% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 34% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 34% of the Latino vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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