Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states?

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$31.48K

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How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states?

Vol

$31.48K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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0.0%avg

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Volume DistributionTotal: $31.48K

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Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	37%
Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	26%
Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	13%
Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	12%
Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	5%
Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 0 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	3%
Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be at least 6 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	1%

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37%

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$31.48K

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About This Event

at the November 3, 2026 general election If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate, including special elections, and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly X at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying jurisdictions are the 19 states that Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Dela

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** at the November 3, 2026 general election

If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate, including special elections, and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly X at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying jurisdictions are the 19 states that Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Dela

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $31.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $493
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $7.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $13.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 0 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $6.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be at least 6 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $268
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states?

Volume$31.48K

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 36.5¢No 63.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market res

KALSHI

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 26.0¢No 74.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market res

KALSHI

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market res

KALSHI

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market res

KALSHI

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market res

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How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states?

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Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Events (1)

How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states?

Markets (7)

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

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