GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsElections

New Hampshire Democratic Governor nominee?

Name: New Hampshire Democratic Governor nominee?
End: 2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$80.40K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

New Hampshire Democratic Governor nominee?

Vol

$80.40K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $36.40K

Kalshi

markets · $44.01K

Price Spread

0.4%avg

max 0.5%

Arbitrage

of 5 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $80.40K

45%

55%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(5)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?	99%	100%	0%
Will Donovan Fenton win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?	0%	0%	0%
Will John Kiper win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?	1%	0%	0%
Will Tom Sherman win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?	1%	0%	0%
Will Deaglan McEachern win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?	0%	0%	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$80.40K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 New Hampshire Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** New Hampshire Democratic Governor nominee?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 New Hampshire Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of New Hampshire, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 New Hampshire Gubernator"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $80.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $57.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.40)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (5 mkts) vs Kalshi (5 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will John Kiper win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 8, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Deaglan McEachern win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 8, 2026): Vol $9.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $9.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 8, 2026): Vol $19.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $19.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Tom Sherman win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 8, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Donovan Fenton win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 8, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIElections

New Hampshire Democratic Governor nominee?

Volume$44.01K

Markets5

POLYMARKETPolitics

New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of New Hampshire, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New Hampshire Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic

Volume$36.40K

Markets5

5 of 5

Sort:

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average99.6%

Polymarket

99.4%

Kalshi+0.4%

99.8%

Difference:0.4%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 99.4¢No 0.6¢

KKalshi

Yes 99.8¢No 0.2¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Cinde Warmington be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?

If Cinde Warmington wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 New Hampshire Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Cinde Warmington wins the party's nomination.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Donovan Fenton win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average0.3%

Polymarket+0.3%

0.4%

Kalshi

0.1%

Difference:0.3%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢

KKalshi

Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Donovan Fenton win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Donovan Fenton be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?

If Donovan Fenton wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 New Hampshire Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Donovan Fenton wins the party's nomination.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will John Kiper win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average0.3%

Polymarket+0.5%

0.5%

Kalshi

0.1%

Difference:0.5%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 0.1¢No 100.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will John Kiper win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Jon Kiper be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?

If Jon Kiper wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 New Hampshire Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Jon Kiper wins the party's nomination.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Tom Sherman win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average0.3%

Polymarket+0.5%

0.5%

Kalshi

0.1%

Difference:0.5%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 0.1¢No 100.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Tom Sherman win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Tom Sherman be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?

If Tom Sherman wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 New Hampshire Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Tom Sherman wins the party's nomination.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Deaglan McEachern win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average0.2%

Polymarket+0.4%

0.4%

Kalshi

0.1%

Difference:0.4%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢

KKalshi

Yes 0.1¢No 100.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Deaglan McEachern win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Deaglan McEachern be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?

If Deaglan McEachern wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 New Hampshire Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Deaglan McEachern wins the party's nomination.

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Discussion

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

20¢

Polymarket

20¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/BQA7Hn" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="New Hampshire Democratic Governor nominee?"></iframe>

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New Hampshire Democratic Governor nominee?

New Hampshire Democratic Governor nominee?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Events (2)

New Hampshire Democratic Governor nominee?

New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Markets (5)

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Cinde Warmington be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?

Will Donovan Fenton win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Donovan Fenton win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Donovan Fenton be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?

Will John Kiper win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will John Kiper win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Jon Kiper be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?

Will Tom Sherman win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Tom Sherman win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Tom Sherman be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?

Will Deaglan McEachern win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Deaglan McEachern win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Deaglan McEachern be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Platform Breakdown

Event Comparison

Share

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Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

New Hampshire Democratic Governor nominee?

New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Cinde Warmington be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?

Will Donovan Fenton win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Donovan Fenton win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Donovan Fenton be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?

Will John Kiper win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will John Kiper win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Jon Kiper be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?

Will Tom Sherman win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Tom Sherman win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Tom Sherman be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?

Will Deaglan McEachern win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Deaglan McEachern win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Deaglan McEachern be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Platform Breakdown

Event Comparison

Share

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