Grand Theft Auto VI: Songs on radio at launch
PM $30.1K · K 84.8K contracts
2
28
Grand Theft Auto VI: Songs on radio at launch
PM $30.1K · K 84.8K contracts
2
28
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 30, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, Pepas is priced at 64.5% on Polymarket and 63.5% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| PepasSame question, fine print differs | 64.5% | 63.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Bad and BoujeeSame question, fine print differs | 39% | 34.5% | 4.5 pts |
| Sicko ModeSame question, fine print differs | 32% | 30.5% | 1.5 pts |
| Blinding LightsSame question, fine print differs | 25.5% | 27.5% | 2.0 pts |
| Mask OffSame question, fine print differs | 22% | 21.5% | 0.5 pts |
| God's PlanSame question, fine print differs | 21.5% | 20% | 1.5 pts |
| Mo BambaSame question, fine print differs | 21% | 16% | 5.0 pts |
| StaySame question, fine print differs | 15% | 17.5% | 2.5 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $30.1K · K 84.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
28
Saved contracts
13
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
At launch If X is playable on at least one in-game radio station in Grand Theft Auto VI at launch, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied rules say that if a named song "is playable on at least one in-game radio station in Grand Theft Auto VI at launch, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each song has its own Yes and No contract within one Kalshi event, so the question for each is whether that specific track appears on at least one station at launch. The event also states an early close condition: the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. The listed end time is not supplied in the source, although the saved market records carry an end date of 2030-01-01T15:00:00Z. That value is a contract field, not an announced launch or event date, and the rules do not say when the game launches.
Reading the snapshot
The observation time is 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-29T04:22:17.105Z [1]. These prices describe that moment only and may not match current quotes. Among the included markets, the highest Yes snapshot prices are Pepas at 0.625, Bad and Boujee at 0.345, and Blinding Lights at 0.26. The lowest included Yes prices are Despacito and Rockstar, both at 0.115. Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they do not show why any price is where it is.
The sample is partial. The saved Kalshi event contains 14 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The two omitted markets have no prices shown in this evidence, so the sample does not describe the full field. Because all markets here come from one provider event, the ranking is valid only within this event. Volume is not reported in this snapshot, so it cannot indicate liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not identify the two omitted markets, does not show their prices, and contains no information about the game's actual radio lineup or launch timing. Listed close times are absent beyond the contract field noted above. Because only one platform is supplied, no cross-platform comparison is possible. Differences between songs' prices should not be read as arbitrage opportunities, since each contract has its own title and status, and the snapshot does not indicate whether any contract can be traded at the quoted level.
References
- Kalshi: Grand Theft Auto VI: Songs on radio at launch. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCOverview
Grand Theft Auto VI is an upcoming action-adventure game developed and published by Rockstar Games. It is described as the eighth main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series, following Grand Theft Auto V from 2013, and the sixteenth entry overall [2]. The game is set in the fictional US state of Leonida, based on Florida, and follows the criminal duo Jason Duval and Lucia Caminos. Players can freely roam Leonida's open world, which includes the Miami-inspired Vice City [2]. The contract in this article concerns music. Its title is "Grand Theft Auto VI: Songs on radio at launch," and it is listed on Kalshi as an active event [1]. Each market in the event asks whether a specific song will be playable on the game's in-game radio at launch. The contract's rule is that if the named song is playable on at least one in-game radio station in Grand Theft Auto VI at launch, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The rules also say the market will close and expire early if that event occurs [1]. The event contains many individual songs. The sample used here is partial: the saved provider event has 14 markets, and 12 are included in this snapshot [1]. The included markets are ordered by their Yes price, so the omitted markets are not shown as lower-priced or less likely. Each market should be read on its own terms, because the songs are separate contracts within one event rather than a ranked field. The prices shown for each song are snapshots taken from the provider at one moment. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities that a song will appear in the game. Trading volume shown by a market is not a measure of liquidity or of how many people are trading. Different songs can have different prices without that difference creating any opportunity to trade, because the contracts are separate and carry their own rules.
Historical Context
The Grand Theft Auto series began with Grand Theft Auto, a 1997 action-adventure game developed by DMA Design and published by BMG Interactive. It was released in November 1997 for MS-DOS and Windows, in December 1997 for the PlayStation, and in October 1999 for the Game Boy Color [3]. The first game followed a criminal who climbs in status within the criminal underworld across three fictional cities and used a top-down perspective [3]. Grand Theft Auto V, released in 2013, is the entry immediately before Grand Theft Auto VI in the main series numbering [2].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow question: whether a named song will be playable on at least one in-game radio station in Grand Theft Auto VI at launch [1]. It does not ask about the songs' quality, licensing terms, or any other feature of the game. A market resolves to Yes if the condition is met, and the rules describe an early close if the event occurs [1]. The market data lists an end date of January 1, 2030, but the rule text in the retrieved source says the listed end time was not supplied [1]. That date should therefore not be read as an announced launch date or a confirmed resolution date. Because the source describes the game as upcoming, the contract's resolution depends on what the game contains at launch. The retrieved game background does not confirm the launch date or the final radio lineup, so the contract should be read as a forecast about a future release rather than a report of current game content [1][2].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome require under this contract?
A Yes outcome requires that the named song be playable on at least one in-game radio station in Grand Theft Auto VI at launch [1].
Does the early close rule mean the market has already resolved?
The rules state that the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The retrieved source does not show that any listed song has already met the condition.
Is the 2030 end date an announced launch date?
No. The market data includes an end date of January 1, 2030, but the retrieved rule text says the listed end time was not supplied [1]. The date should not be treated as a launch announcement.
Are the prices probabilities that a song will be on the radio?
The prices are provider snapshots from one retrieval, not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. They reflect the market at that time and should not be read as confirmed chances.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
6
Same-question pairs
13
Largest saved gap: 5.0 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
