Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

Nobel Economics Prize Winner 2026

Name: Nobel Economics Prize Winner 2026
End: 2026-10-13T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$89.49K

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Markets

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Nobel Economics Prize Winner 2026

Vol

$89.49K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $89.49K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $89.49K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

17 markets tracked

Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(17)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	22%
Will Lawrence Katz win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	14%
Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	12%
Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	12%
Will Richard Blundell win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	10%
Will David Autor win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	9%
Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	7%
Will Robert Barro win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	6%
Will Ernst Fehr win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	6%
Will Partha Dasgupta win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	5%
Will Matthew Rabin win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	2%
Will Sidney Winter win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	2%
Will Andreu Mas-Colell win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Demian Reidel win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Luigi Zingales win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Victor Chernozhukov win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

22%

Top Probability

$89.49K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Nobel Prize in Economics is awarded annually by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is scheduled to be announced on October 12, 2026, at 11:45 AM CEST (5:45 AM ET) at the earliest. The Nobel Prize in Economics means the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed person is named a laureate of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics in the official announcement from the Royal Swedish A

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Nobel Economics Prize Winner 2026
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 13, 2026 (2 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** The Nobel Prize in Economics is awarded annually by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is scheduled to be announced on October 12, 2026, at 11:45 AM CEST (5:45 AM ET) at the earliest.

The Nobel Prize in Economics means the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed person is named a laureate of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics in the official announcement from the Royal Swedish A

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $89.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $55.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.61)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $14.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Robert Barro win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Richard Blundell win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $8.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Partha Dasgupta win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Ernst Fehr win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Andreu Mas-Colell win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $16.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Matthew Rabin win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Luigi Zingales win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Victor Chernozhukov win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $914
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Sidney Winter win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Lawrence Katz win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $5.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Demian Reidel win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will David Autor win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $6.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETCulture