Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This Polymarket event asks how the 2026 AL-05 House election will resolve on margin of victory, defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Independent candidates are not options for either party, and candidate names are included "for the convenience of traders" [1]. If a nominee is replaced before election day, the market resolves on the replacement nominee [1].

The primary resolution source is the official results certified by the state electoral authority, although "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. A value falling exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The source says the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That is a scheduled expectation in the source, not a confirmed result.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T00:49:49.047Z [1]. These are snapshots at those times, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

The sample includes all nine saved markets for this event, with no partial sample flag [1]. Eight are margin brackets for a Republican Party win, from 0% to 10% through 40% or more. The ninth asks whether the Democratic Party candidate wins [1]. Among the Republican brackets, Yes prices range from 0.0365 for 0% to 10% up to 0.365 for 15% to 20%, with 0.079 for 40% or more [1]. The Democratic win market shows Yes at 0.039 [1].

Each bracket is a separate contract. Their prices should not be summed or averaged, and the Democratic market should not be combined with the Republican brackets. The data includes no volume or trader counts, so these prices do not show how many people hold each position.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and this summary does not infer a cause. It contains no recent news, trader counts, or record of how accurate these markets have been. The sample warning notes that the saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A lower price on one bracket therefore does not show that an unlisted outcome is less likely. The Democratic winner contract and the Republican margin brackets ask different questions, so a price difference between them is not an arbitrage opportunity.

References

1. Polymarket: AL-05 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.