GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

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2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

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Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?	Kalshi	76%
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 6bps?	Kalshi	71%
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 8bps?	Kalshi	63%
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps?	Kalshi	53%
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 12bps?	Kalshi	30%
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 15bps?	Kalshi	16%
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 18bps?	Kalshi	9%
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 20bps?	Kalshi	7%
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 25bps?	Kalshi	5%
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 30bps?	Kalshi	3%

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About This Event

July 29, 2026 If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least X then the market resolves to Yes. The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis.” H.15 is normally posted at 4:15 PM ET each business day. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 value -

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** July 29, 2026

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least X then the market resolves to Yes. The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis.” H.15 is normally posted at 4:15 PM ET each business day. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 value -

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 8bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Market"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 8bps?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 63.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 6bps?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 30bps?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 25bps?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 20bps?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 18bps?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 15bps?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 12bps?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

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KALSHI

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.5¢No 24.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 4bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Market

KALSHI

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 6bps?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 6bps?

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 6bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Market

KALSHI

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 8bps?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 63.0¢No 37.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 8bps?

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 8bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Market

KALSHI

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 53.5¢No 46.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps?

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 10bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Marke

KALSHI

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 12bps?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 12bps?

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 12bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Marke

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2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

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Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?

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Events (1)

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

Markets (10)

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 6bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 6bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 8bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 8bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 12bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 12bps?

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Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 6bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 6bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 8bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 8bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 12bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 12bps?

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