What is the current price for "2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?"?

The leading outcome "Yes" is currently trading at 63.0% probability.

How many markets are available for "2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?"?

There are 10 markets available for this event on Kalshi.

What is the trading volume for "2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?"?

Trading volume data is not currently available.

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2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

Yes76%

Vol$0.00

Markets10

76%

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Event Group

EventKALSHI

Single EventKALSHIEconomics

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

Name: 2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?
Start: 2026-07-10T07:58:05.892Z
End: 2026-08-09T07:58:05.892Z

Part of: 2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

July 29, 2026 If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least X then the market resolves to Yes. The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis.” H.15 is normally posted at 4:15 PM ET each business day. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 value -

YesLeading Yes Probability

76%

VolTotal Volume

$0.00

Markets

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2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

Yes

76%

Vol

$0.00

Markets

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Market Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?

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All Markets(10)

Market	Price
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?	76%
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 6bps?	71%
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 8bps?	63%
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps?	53%
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 12bps?	30%

Markets (10)

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KALSHIEconomics

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 4bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Market

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 6bps?

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 6bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Market

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 8bps?

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 8bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Market

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps?

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 10bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Marke

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 12bps?

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 12bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Marke

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 15bps?

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 15bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Marke

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 18bps?

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 18bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Marke

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 20bps?

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 20bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Marke

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 25bps?

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 25bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Marke

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 30bps?

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 30bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Marke

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

Market Price Graph

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?

Rules & Resolution Criteria

Markets (10)

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 6bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 8bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 12bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 15bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 18bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 20bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 25bps?

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 30bps?

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