California Governor winner? | PredictPedia

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Who will win the governorship in California? (Tom Steyer)

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Single-Platform Markets(25)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win the governorship in California? (Tom Steyer)	Kalshi	59%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Xavier Becerra)	Kalshi	20%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Matt Mahan)	Kalshi	9%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Steve Hilton)	Kalshi	7%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Katie Porter)	Kalshi	6%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Chad Bianco)	Kalshi	4%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Kamala Harris)	Kalshi	1%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Ché Ahn)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Antonio Villaraigosa)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Eric Swalwell)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Betty Yee)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Rob Bonta)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Ethan Agarwal)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Rick Caruso)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Alex Padilla)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Nicole Shanahan)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Michael Younger)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Leo Zacky)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Tony Thurmond)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Stephen Cloobeck)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Kyle Langford)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Eleni Kounalakis)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Daniel Mercuri)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Butch Ware)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win the governorship in California? (Toni Atkins)	Kalshi	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, April 18, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California Governor winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Matt Mahan is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win the governorship in California? (Matt Mahan)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win the governorship in California? (Ché Ahn)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will win the governorship in California? (Rob Bonta)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will win the governorship in California? (Eric Swalwell)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will win the governorship in California? (Ethan Agarwal)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will win the governorship in California? (Tom Steyer)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will win the governorship in California? (Kamala Harris)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 8. Who will win the governorship in California? (Rick Caruso)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Who will win the governorship in California? (Alex Padilla)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Who will win the governorship in California? (Nicole Shanahan)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Who will win the governorship in California? (Michael Younger)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Who will win the governorship in California? (Leo Zacky)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Who will win the governorship in California? (Betty Yee)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 14. Who will win the governorship in California? (Xavier Becerra)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Who will win the governorship in California? (Tony Thurmond)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Who will win the governorship in California? (Steve Hilton)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.3% (0.0%)]

### 17. Who will win the governorship in California? (Stephen Cloobeck)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Who will win the governorship in California? (Katie Porter)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Who will win the governorship in California? (Kyle Langford)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Who will win the governorship in California? (Eleni Kounalakis)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Who will win the governorship in California? (Daniel Mercuri)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Who will win the governorship in California? (Chad Bianco)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Who will win the governorship in California? (Butch Ware)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Who will win the governorship in California? (Antonio Villaraigosa)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 25. Who will win the governorship in California? (Toni Atkins)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Who will win the governorship in California? (Tom Steyer)

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Events (1)

California Governor winner?

Markets (25)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Tom Steyer)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Tom Steyer)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Xavier Becerra)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Xavier Becerra)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Matt Mahan)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Matt Mahan)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Steve Hilton)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Steve Hilton)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Katie Porter)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Katie Porter)

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Who will win the governorship in California? (Tom Steyer)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

California Governor winner?

Who will win the governorship in California? (Tom Steyer)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Tom Steyer)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Xavier Becerra)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Xavier Becerra)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Matt Mahan)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Matt Mahan)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Steve Hilton)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Steve Hilton)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Katie Porter)

Who will win the governorship in California? (Katie Porter)

Related News & Context

Discussion

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