Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?

Total Volume

$121.25

Events

Markets

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MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?

Vol

$121.25

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $121.25

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $121.25

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%?	Kalshi	75%
Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be at least 15%?	Kalshi	25%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

75%

Top Probability

$121.25

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 This market will close and expire early if the MacAskill side is determined to have won.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Q3 2026 through Q4 2033

Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 This market will close and expire early if the MacAskill side is determined to have won.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least 

15%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the public challenge agreed upon in August 2026 between the following sides:

MacAskill side "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $121
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be at least 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 26, 2034): Vol $115
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 26, 2034): Vol $6
  DATA: [Yes: 75.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?

Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 This market will close and expire early if the MacAskill side is determined to have won.

Volume$121.25

Markets2

2 of 2

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KALSHI

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.0¢No 25.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%?

If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is below 15%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the public challenge agreed upon in August 2026 between the following sides: MacAskill side (fa

KALSHI

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be at least 15%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be at least 15%?

If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least 15%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the public challenge agreed upon in August 2026 between the following sides: MacAskill side

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Average Yes Price

50¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/BbAQym" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?"></iframe>

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Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?

Markets (2)

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%?

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%?

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be at least 15%?

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be at least 15%?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%?

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%?

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be at least 15%?

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be at least 15%?

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