Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US real GDP growth in 2036?

Total Volume

$156.71K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

US real GDP growth in 2036?

Vol

$156.71K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $156.71K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $156.71K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

14 markets tracked

GDP growth in 2036? (1.6% to 2.0%)

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
GDP growth in 2036? (1.6% to 2.0%)	Kalshi	23%
GDP growth in 2036? (2.1% to 2.5%)	Kalshi	17%
GDP growth in 2036? (0.0% or Below)	Kalshi	9%
GDP growth in 2036? (0.1% to 0.5%)	Kalshi	5%
GDP growth in 2036? (2.6% to 3.0%)	Kalshi	4%
GDP growth in 2036? (4.1% to 4.5%)	Kalshi	4%
GDP growth in 2036? (1.1% to 1.5%)	Kalshi	3%
GDP growth in 2036? (0.6% to 1.0%)	Kalshi	3%
GDP growth in 2036? (6.1% or Above)	Kalshi	2%
GDP growth in 2036? (4.6% to 5.0%)	Kalshi	2%
GDP growth in 2036? (3.6% to 4.0%)	Kalshi	2%
GDP growth in 2036? (3.1% to 3.5%)	Kalshi	2%
GDP growth in 2036? (5.6% to 6.0%)	Kalshi	1%
GDP growth in 2036? (5.1% to 5.5%)	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

23%

Top Probability

$156.71K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2036 If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is X Y then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product, GDP, growth in the United States for calendar year 2036. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2036 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2036 GDP in early 2037. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US real GDP growth in 2036?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2036

If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is X Y then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product, GDP, growth in the United States for calendar year 2036. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2036 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2036 GDP in early 2037. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2036. The Expiration Value will "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $156.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. GDP growth in 2036? (6.1% or Above)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2037): Vol $14.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. GDP growth in 2036? (0.0% or Below)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2037): Vol $9.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. GDP growth in 2036? (5.6% to 6.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2037): Vol $8.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. GDP growth in 2036? (5.1% to 5.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2037): Vol $10.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. GDP growth in 2036? (4.6% to 5.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2037): Vol $13.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. GDP growth in 2036? (4.1% to 4.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2037): Vol $10.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. GDP growth in 2036? (3.6% to 4.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2037): Vol $12.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. GDP growth in 2036? (3.1% to 3.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2037): Vol $13.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. GDP growth in 2036? (2.6% to 3.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2037): Vol $15.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. GDP growth in 2036? (2.1% to 2.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2037): Vol $12.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. GDP growth in 2036? (1.6% to 2.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2037): Vol $7.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. GDP growth in 2036? (1.1% to 1.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2037): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. GDP growth in 2036? (0.6% to 1.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2037): Vol $8.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. GDP growth in 2036? (0.1% to 0.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2037): Vol $12.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US real GDP growth in 2036?

Volume$156.71K

Markets14

14 of 14

Sort:

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2036? (1.6% to 2.0%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 23.0¢No 77.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2036? (1.6% to 2.0%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 1.6% to 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2036. The Expiration V

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2036? (2.1% to 2.5%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2036? (2.1% to 2.5%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2036. The Expiration V

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2036? (0.0% or Below)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2036? (0.0% or Below)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2036. The Expiration Value will

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2036? (0.1% to 0.5%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2036? (0.1% to 0.5%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 0.1% to 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2036. The Expiration V

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2036? (2.6% to 3.0%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2036? (2.6% to 3.0%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 2.6% to 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2036. The Expiration V

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GDP growth in 2036? (1.6% to 2.0%)

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Events (1)

US real GDP growth in 2036?

Markets (14)

GDP growth in 2036? (1.6% to 2.0%)

GDP growth in 2036? (1.6% to 2.0%)

GDP growth in 2036? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2036? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2036? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2036? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2036? (0.1% to 0.5%)

GDP growth in 2036? (0.1% to 0.5%)

GDP growth in 2036? (2.6% to 3.0%)

GDP growth in 2036? (2.6% to 3.0%)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

GDP growth in 2036? (1.6% to 2.0%)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US real GDP growth in 2036?

GDP growth in 2036? (1.6% to 2.0%)

GDP growth in 2036? (1.6% to 2.0%)

GDP growth in 2036? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2036? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2036? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2036? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2036? (0.1% to 0.5%)

GDP growth in 2036? (0.1% to 0.5%)

GDP growth in 2036? (2.6% to 3.0%)

GDP growth in 2036? (2.6% to 3.0%)

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