$970.21K
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$970.21K
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following: 1. A written o
Prediction markets currently price a 47% probability that Ukraine will officially agree to a U.S.-backed ceasefire framework by March 31, 2026. This near-even split indicates the market views the outcome as essentially a coin flip, reflecting profound uncertainty about the war's diplomatic trajectory. The market has attracted significant attention, with nearly $1 million in volume across related contracts, demonstrating substantial trader engagement on this geopolitical question.
Two primary factors are suppressing the odds below 50%. First, Ukraine's official political and military stance remains publicly committed to restoring its 1991 territorial integrity, including reclaiming Crimea. Agreeing to any framework that codifies territorial losses would pose an existential political risk for the Kyiv government. Second, the United States has not publicly advanced a specific peace plan it formally endorses, maintaining a policy of supporting Ukraine's sovereignty and self-defense. The lack of a concrete, publicly promoted U.S. framework is a major hurdle for a "Yes" resolution.
Conversely, the probability is not lower because of latent diplomatic pressure. Behind-the-scenes discussions reportedly occur, and some analysts believe sustained military stalemate or shifting U.S. political priorities after the 2024 election could create a window for diplomacy in 2025. The market price captures this tension between public postures and private possibilities.
The most significant near-term catalyst is the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November 2024 and the subsequent policy direction of the administration in early 2025. A change in U.S. leadership could alter the level of pressure on Kyiv to enter negotiations. A major shift on the battlefield in 2025, either a decisive Ukrainian setback or a significant Russian breakthrough, could force a diplomatic reassessment by either party. Finally, any official leak or announcement of a detailed U.S. peace roadmap would immediately shift the market, likely increasing the "Yes" probability as it would satisfy a core condition of the market's resolution criteria.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether Ukraine will officially agree to a US-backed ceasefire framework to end the Russo-Ukrainian war by December 31, 2025. The market resolves based on a specific set of conditions: a publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war must be formally endorsed by the United States and officially agreed to by Ukraine through a written agreement, a joint public statement, or a formal vote in the Ukrainian parliament. This topic sits at the intersection of international diplomacy, military strategy, and domestic politics in multiple countries. The war, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, has become the largest conventional conflict in Europe since World War II, creating a protracted stalemate with significant global ramifications. Interest in this market stems from the high stakes involved, including regional security, global energy and food supplies, and the future of the international rules-based order. Recent developments, including shifting battlefield dynamics and evolving political will among Ukraine's Western allies, have intensified discussions about potential diplomatic off-ramps, making the prospect of a negotiated framework a central subject of geopolitical analysis and forecasting.
The search for a diplomatic solution to the Russo-Ukrainian war has a complex history. The conflict's origins trace back to Russia's annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of war in the Donbas region in 2014. The Minsk agreements, brokered by France and Germany in 2014 and 2015, attempted to freeze the conflict but ultimately failed to bring peace, as both sides accused the other of violations. Following the full-scale invasion in 2022, early negotiation attempts occurred in Belarus and Turkey during March and April 2022. These talks reportedly made progress on Ukrainian neutrality in exchange for security guarantees, but collapsed after the discovery of atrocities in Bucha and a shift in military momentum. Since then, Ukraine and Russia have taken maximalist public positions, with Ukraine demanding full territorial restoration and Russia demanding recognition of its annexed territories. Historically, conflicts of this scale often conclude with negotiated settlements after military stalemates, as seen in the Korean War armistice of 1953. The precedent of the Minsk process demonstrates the challenges of implementing agreements where fundamental issues of sovereignty and territory remain unresolved.
The outcome of this question carries profound implications for global security and the international order. A negotiated ceasefire would potentially end the direct human suffering and economic devastation within Ukraine, but its terms would set a precedent for how the world responds to territorial aggression by a major power. A settlement perceived as rewarding Russian conquest could embolden other authoritarian states and undermine the principle of territorial integrity enshrined in the UN Charter. Conversely, a durable peace could stabilize global energy and agricultural markets, which have been disrupted by the war, and allow for the reconstruction of Ukraine, a project estimated to cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Domestically, in both the US and Ukraine, any agreement would trigger significant political repercussions. In Ukraine, leaders agreeing to concessions would face public scrutiny, while in the US, the debate over continued support would reach a climax. The security architecture of Europe for decades to come hinges on the war's resolution.
As of late 2024, the war remains largely deadlocked along a lengthy front line, with both sides struggling for major breakthroughs. In the United States, debate over continued funding for Ukraine has become entangled in domestic politics, leading to delays in aid packages. Several Western governments and officials have privately and publicly begun to use the term 'negotiations' and discuss potential endgames more frequently, though no formal US-backed framework has been presented. Ukraine continues to promote its 10-point peace formula at international summits. Russia has shown no public flexibility on its core territorial demands, maintaining its stance that the annexed regions are permanently part of Russia.
President Zelenskyy's peace plan, first presented in November 2022, includes demands for radiation and nuclear safety, food and energy security, the release of all prisoners and deportees, restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity, withdrawal of Russian troops, prosecution of war crimes, prevention of ecocide, guarantees against escalation, and confirmation of the war's end. It is Ukraine's official baseline for negotiations.
US officials have publicly stated that decisions about negotiations are for Ukraine to make. However, multiple reports from major news outlets indicate that senior US officials, including National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, have engaged in confidential discussions with Ukrainian, European, and Russian counterparts about what a potential settlement could entail, exploring scenarios and realities.
The Minsk I (2014) and Minsk II (2015) agreements were ceasefire deals meant to end the fighting in the Donbas. They failed because Russia and Ukraine had diametrically opposed interpretations of their political provisions, particularly regarding local elections and Ukrainian control of its border. The agreements ultimately froze, rather than resolved, the conflict.
For this prediction market to resolve to 'Yes,' the United States government, through an official channel such as the White House or State Department, must publicly declare its support for a specific peace framework. Private or informal support would not qualify. This requires an official statement, communiqué, or signing ceremony.
Yes. The market specifies a 'ceasefire framework,' which is a plan intended as the basis for ending the war. This could be an armistice agreement to halt fighting, potentially with a roadmap for further negotiations on a final peace treaty. It does not require a final, comprehensive settlement on all issues like borders or reparations.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 47% |
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| Poly | 8% |
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