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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?

Name: Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.51M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?

Vol

$1.51M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.51M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.51M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	Poly	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$1.51M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following: 1. A written o

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:

1. A written o

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, ro"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $38.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $17.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.20)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $38.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld