Market snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

When will AI score above 170 on Epoch Capabilities Index?

Reported volume

K 141 contracts

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Trade on Kalshi

When will AI score above 170 on Epoch Capabilities Index?

Vol

K 141 contracts

Events

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Kalshi

Provider overview

polymarket

Reported lifetime volume

kalshi

141 contracts

Reported lifetime volume

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5 markets tracked

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Epoch ECI above 170 before Jul 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Epoch ECI above 170 before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	96.5%
Epoch ECI above 170 before Apr 1, 2027?	Kalshi	91.5%
Epoch ECI above 170 before Feb 1, 2027?	Kalshi	81.5%
Epoch ECI above 170 before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	71.5%
Epoch ECI above 170 before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	46.5%

Rules & Resolution

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AI Analysis

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K 141 contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC

About This Event

Any AI model from any lab If any AI model company records above 170 on Epoch AI's Epoch Capabilities Index, General ECI, https://epoch.ai/eci?view=graph&tab=leaderboard, after market issuance and before X 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. X qualifying score must be strictly greater than the threshold; equality does not qualify. The relevant score is the official, publicly displayed overall index score on https://epoch.ai/eci?view=graph&tab=leaderboard. The observation window begins at market issuance and ends immediately before the date stated in the market, at 12:00 AM ET. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Epoch AI. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if a qualifying score is officially published during the observation window.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: When will AI score above 170 on Epoch Capabilities Index? 
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 141 contracts
Coverage: 5 of 5 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Epoch ECI above 170 before Jul 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXEPOCHSCORE-01JUL27-T170-B01JUL27; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxepochscore-01jul27-t170
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Jul 1, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If any AI model company records above 170 on Epoch AI's Epoch Capabilities Index (General ECI) (https://epoch.ai/eci?view=graph&tab=leaderboard) after market issuance and before July 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying score must be strictly greater than the threshold; equality does not qualify. The relevant score is the official, publicly displayed overall index score on https://epoch.ai/eci?view=graph&tab=leaderboard. The observation window begins at market issuance and ends immediately before the date stated in the market, at 12:00 AM ET.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Epoch AI. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a qualifying score is officially published during the observation window.

Contract: Epoch ECI above 170 before Jan 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXEPOCHSCORE-01JUL27-T170-B01JAN27; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxepochscore-01jul27-t170
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 141 contracts
Outcome Yes: 71.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 28.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If any AI model company records above 170 on Epoch AI's Epoch Capabilities Index (General ECI) (https://epoch.ai/eci?view=graph&tab=leaderboard) after market issuance and before January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying score must be strictly greater than the threshold; equality does not qualify. The relevant score is the official, publicly displayed overall index score on https://epoch.ai/eci?view=graph&tab=leaderboard. The observation window begins at market issuance and ends immediately before the date stated in the market, at 12:00 AM ET.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Epoch AI. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a qualifying score is officially published during the observation window.

Contract: Epoch ECI above 170 before Feb 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXEPOCHSCORE-01JUL27-T170-B01FEB27; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxepochscore-01jul27-t170
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Feb 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 81.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 18.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If any AI model company records above 170 on Epoch AI's Epoch Capabilities Index (General ECI) (https://epoch.ai/eci?view=graph&tab=leaderboard) after market issuance and before February 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying score must be strictly greater than the threshold; equality does not qualify. The relevant score is the official, publicly displayed overall index score on https://epoch.ai/eci?view=graph&tab=leaderboard. The observation window begins at market issuance and ends immediately before the date stated in the market, at 12:00 AM ET.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Epoch AI. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a qualifying score is officially published during the observation window.

Contract: Epoch ECI above 170 before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXEPOCHSCORE-01JUL27-T170-B01DEC26; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxepochscore-01jul27-t170
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 46.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 53.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If any AI model company records above 170 on Epoch AI's Epoch Capabilities Index (General ECI) (https://epoch.ai/eci?view=graph&tab=leaderboard) after market issuance and before December 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying score must be strictly greater than the threshold; equality does not qualify. The relevant score is the official, publicly displayed overall index score on https://epoch.ai/eci?view=graph&tab=leaderboard. The observation window begins at market issuance and ends immediately before the date stated in the market, at 12:00 AM ET.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Epoch AI. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a qualifying score is officially published during the observation window.

Contract: Epoch ECI above 170 before Apr 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXEPOCHSCORE-01JUL27-T170-B01APR27; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxepochscore-01jul27-t170
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 1, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 91.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 8.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If any AI model company records above 170 on Epoch AI's Epoch Capabilities Index (General ECI) (https://epoch.ai/eci?view=graph&tab=leaderboard) after market issuance and before April 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying score must be strictly greater than the threshold; equality does not qualify. The relevant score is the official, publicly displayed overall index score on https://epoch.ai/eci?view=graph&tab=leaderboard. The observation window begins at market issuance and ends immediately before the date stated in the market, at 12:00 AM ET.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Epoch AI. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a qualifying score is officially published during the observation window.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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KALSHIScience and Technology