Lowest temperature in Wuhan on October 21?
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Lowest temperature in Wuhan on October 21?
PM $0
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11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks for the lowest temperature recorded on 21 October 2026 at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station. The contract resolves to the temperature range containing that value, using NOAA's "Temp" column for all times that day [1]. Readings are whole degrees Celsius, so a value such as 9°C is the level of precision used for settlement [1].
The rules include fallbacks. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If no data exists by that time, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The rules also allow up to seven calendar days for a correction if the source publishes clearly erroneous data, and they consider revisions only until the first datapoint for the following date is published [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z [1]. That is the provider's listed close, not a confirmed resolution time.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-19T06:00:06Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:57:18Z [1]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they may not reflect later prices.
All 11 saved markets for this event are included, so the sample is not partial [1]. The Yes prices are as follows:
- 10°C or below: 0.50
- 11°C through 19°C (nine separate markets): 0.34 each
- 20°C or higher: 0.49
The lowest-temperature bracket and the 20°C-or-higher bracket are worded differently, and each has its own threshold. The middle brackets are single degrees. Because these are separate contracts, their Yes prices should not be added together or averaged. The Yes prices here sum to more than 1, so they should not be read as a complete probability distribution. The evidence does not explain why the prices are at these levels.
Volume is not included in the evidence, so no statement about liquidity or trader participation can be made.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the eventual observed low, whether NOAA data will be available on time, or whether any correction will be published. The sampleWarning confirms only that the saved markets are included, not that every possible outcome is listed [1]. The evidence contains only one source, a Polymarket event record, and no independent weather forecast or news.
References
- Polymarket: Lowest temperature in Wuhan on October 21?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCAI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.