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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Name: OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$30.15K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Vol

$30.15K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $30.15K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $30.15K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Poly	38%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Poly	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

38%

Top Probability

$30.15K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $30.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.1K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.72)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $22.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $7.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech