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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Utah | Kalshi | 81% |
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Utah | Kalshi | 19% |
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In 2028 If a representative X party is inaugurated as the governor of Utah pursuant to the 2028 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2028 gubernatorial election. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2028 gubernatorial election.
Prediction markets currently price an 89% probability that the Democratic Party will win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. This price, translating to a roughly 9-in-10 chance, indicates the market views a Democratic victory as the overwhelming favorite. The high confidence is reflected in the significant trading volume, which totals $219,000 across platforms. With the election nearly 300 days away, this pricing represents a strong consensus on the expected outcome.
Three structural factors underpin the Democratic party's dominant market position. First, New York's deep-blue partisan lean is decisive. The state has not elected a Republican governor since 2006, and registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than a 2-to-1 margin. Second, the power of incumbency favors Democrats. Governor Kathy Hochul, who won a full term in 2022, is the presumptive Democratic nominee and would benefit from the state party's formidable fundraising and organizational apparatus. Third, recent Republican performances have been weak. The GOP's 2022 gubernatorial nominee lost by roughly 6 points, and the party has struggled to craft a statewide message that resonates beyond its conservative base.
The current 89% probability could shift with major unforeseen developments. A significant economic downturn or a crisis of governance under the Hochul administration could erode Democratic support and improve Republican prospects. A contentious and divisive Democratic primary, though currently unlikely, could also weaken the eventual nominee. Conversely, the odds could move even higher if a top-tier Republican candidate declines to run or if early polling shows an insurmountable Democratic lead. Key dates to watch will be the party primaries in mid-2026, which will finalize the candidates and set the stage for the general election campaign.
This event is active on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with prices closely aligned around the 89% level for a Democratic win. The absence of a meaningful arbitrage spread indicates efficient information sharing between platforms and a solidified consensus among traders. The high liquidity across both exchanges lends credibility to the current price as a robust snapshot of collective expectation, rather than an artifact of a thin market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The 2028 Utah gubernatorial election will determine who serves as the state's chief executive from January 2029 through January 2033. This election is significant as it will mark the end of Governor Spencer Cox's second and final term, creating an open seat for the first time since 2020. The governorship of Utah is a powerful position, with authority over the state's budget, executive agencies, and significant appointment powers. The election will be held on November 7, 2028, with the winner inaugurated in January 2029. This prediction market specifically tracks whether a representative of a particular political party, designated as 'X Party' in the market description, will win the election and be sworn into office. The market will resolve based on the official inauguration of the governor-elect following the election results. Interest in this market stems from Utah's unique political landscape as a reliably Republican state that has shown increasing signs of political diversification in recent years, particularly in urban areas like Salt Lake County. The outcome will influence state policy on critical issues including water management, public lands, education funding, and economic development for the nation's fastest-growing state by population percentage in the 2020s.
Utah has elected only Republican governors since 1985, when Democrat Scott Matheson left office after two terms. The current streak represents over four decades of Republican control of the governor's office. The last competitive gubernatorial election occurred in 2004, when Republican Jon Huntsman Jr. defeated Democrat Scott Matheson Jr. with 58 percent of the vote. Since then, Republican candidates have won by increasingly large margins, with Spencer Cox capturing 63 percent of the vote in 2020 against Democrat Chris Peterson. The Republican dominance in gubernatorial elections contrasts with occasional Democratic successes in other statewide offices, most recently in 2012 when Democrat Jim Matheson was reelected to Congress. Utah's political history shows that while Republicans dominate federal and statewide elections, Democrats can be competitive in specific geographic areas, particularly Salt Lake County, which has trended toward Democratic candidates in recent presidential elections. The 2028 election will occur 100 years after the last time Utah had an open gubernatorial election without an incumbent running for reelection, which happened in 1928 when Democrat George Dern defeated Republican Charles Mabey. This historical pattern suggests open seats can produce more competitive elections than when incumbents seek reelection.
The 2028 gubernatorial election will determine leadership for Utah during a critical period of demographic and economic transformation. Utah is projected to surpass 4 million residents by 2028, creating intense pressure on infrastructure, water resources, and housing markets. The governor will make crucial decisions about allocating billions in transportation funding, managing Colorado River water allocations during ongoing drought conditions, and implementing education policies for the state's young population, which has the highest percentage of children under 18 of any U.S. state. Politically, the election will test whether Utah's recent trend toward more competitive politics in federal elections extends to statewide offices. A Democratic victory would represent a seismic shift in Western politics and potentially create a model for how the party can compete in traditionally Republican states through moderation and local issues. For Republicans, the election represents an opportunity to demonstrate the party's continued dominance in the Intermountain West amid changing demographics. The outcome will influence redistricting following the 2030 census, as Utah is likely to gain a fifth congressional seat, giving the governor substantial influence over the state's political map for the following decade.
As of late 2024, no candidates have formally declared for the 2028 Utah gubernatorial election, which remains four years away. Potential candidates are likely assessing their prospects while focusing on the 2024 and 2026 election cycles. Governor Spencer Cox continues to implement his policy agenda while maintaining his position as a popular incumbent with approval ratings consistently above 55 percent. The Utah Republican Party is preparing for leadership transitions as several prominent figures consider their political futures. Meanwhile, Utah Democrats are rebuilding after disappointing results in the 2022 midterms, with party leaders emphasizing candidate recruitment and grassroots organizing in preparation for future statewide campaigns. The political landscape may shift significantly based on outcomes of the 2024 presidential election and 2026 midterms, which will influence candidate decisions and party resources.
The election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028, concurrent with the presidential election. If no candidate receives a majority, a runoff election would be held between the top two candidates, though Utah has not had a gubernatorial runoff since implementing its current election system.
Candidates must be at least 30 years old, a United States citizen, and a qualified voter who has resided in Utah for at least five years immediately preceding the election. There are no term limits for the Utah governorship, but Governor Spencer Cox will be term-limited after completing his second consecutive term in 2029.
The governor's salary is set by the Utah State Legislature and was $174,000 annually as of 2024. This amount typically increases with cost-of-living adjustments and is supplemented by an official residence, the Kearns Mansion, and security and transportation provisions.
While specific dates for 2028 have not been set, Utah typically requires voter registration 30 days before an election. However, Utah also offers same-day voter registration during early voting and on Election Day with proof of identity and residency.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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