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$3.22M
1
7
$3.22M
1
7
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast after this market's creation gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/
Prediction markets currently show a slight edge toward MrBeast's next video getting fewer than 25 million views in its first 24 hours. The "yes" side on that question trades at about 59%, meaning traders see roughly a 3 in 5 chance the video falls short of that mark. This suggests a collective expectation that the video will perform strongly, but possibly not reach the explosive, record-setting heights of some past launches.
Two main factors shape these odds. First, MrBeast's recent uploads provide a baseline. His last few main channel videos have gathered between 20 million and 30 million views on day one. The 25 million threshold sits right in the middle of that recent range, making it a logical line for a close call.
Second, the specific type of video matters. A typical, large-scale stunt might hit the 20-30 million range. However, if the next video is a special event, like a recreation of "Squid Game," or has a major celebrity cameo, it could easily surge past 30 million. Since traders don't know what the video will be about, the odds reflect an average of these possibilities, leaning slightly toward a standard, if still massive, debut.
The main event is simply the publication of the next video on the main "MrBeast" YouTube channel. MrBeast does not follow a strict schedule, so the drop date is unpredictable. Once it's live, the view counter will be the only metric that matters. Watch for early traction in the first few hours. If the video gains 5 million views in its first two hours, for example, it would be on a pace to easily clear 25 million in a day. Also, note if MrBeast promotes it heavily on other platforms like X (Twitter) or if it features an unusually high-profile collaborator, as these can boost initial velocity.
Markets that track measurable, short-term outcomes like YouTube views tend to be fairly accurate, as they aggregate many people's research on past performance and current trends. The main limitation here is the "unknown unknown" of the video's content. If MrBeast unexpectedly posts a lower-effort short film or a video about a niche topic, it could underperform. Conversely, a surprise mega-production could blow past expectations. The market's current odds show it is pricing in this uncertainty, not offering a sure bet.
The market is pricing in significant uncertainty around the performance of MrBeast's next video. The leading contract, asking if the video will get less than 25 million views in its first 24 hours, trades at 59 cents, implying a 59% probability. This suggests the consensus leans toward the video underperforming that specific threshold, but it is a narrow majority. The remaining 41% probability is distributed across higher view brackets, with the 25-30 million range at 18% and the 30-35 million range at 12%. The market sees a 10% chance the video exceeds 35 million views on day one.
Two primary factors are suppressing expectations below the 25 million mark. First, MrBeast's recent uploads show a pattern of declining day-one view velocity for standard content. His last five main channel videos averaged approximately 23 million views in their first 24 hours, with only one, a high-cost "$1 vs $1,000,000 Hotel" stunt, clearing 30 million. Routine challenge videos now consistently land in the low-to-mid 20 million range. Second, the market is accounting for content fatigue and increased competition. The algorithm's push toward Shorts and the fragmentation of audience attention across platforms like TikTok have pressured initial view bursts for long-form YouTube videos, even for top creators.
The odds will be most sensitive to the video's topic and production scale, which are unknown variables. A landmark, expensive video similar to "$1 vs $100,000,000 Car!" could immediately shift probability into the 30M+ brackets. Conversely, a lower-stakes challenge or a sponsored integration could solidify the "under 25M" case. The timing of the release also matters. A holiday weekend or a coordinated community push could boost initial traffic. The next concrete catalyst will be the video's announcement or teaser, which typically signals the content tier and allows traders to reassess the expected viral coefficient before the upload itself.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the first-day viewership of the next video published by Jimmy Donaldson, known professionally as MrBeast, on his primary YouTube channel. MrBeast is the most-subscribed individual creator on YouTube, with over 300 million subscribers as of early 2025. His content, characterized by elaborate stunts, large-scale philanthropy, and high-production challenges, consistently generates some of the platform's most viral viewership numbers. The market specifically resolves based on the total views accumulated in the 24-hour period immediately following a video's public upload, a metric that has become a key indicator of a creator's cultural reach and the commercial success of a video launch. Interest in predicting these figures stems from MrBeast's unprecedented and consistent ability to draw massive, immediate audiences, which influences advertising revenue, sponsorship deals, and broader trends within the digital content industry. The market includes a resolution deadline of May 31, 2026; if no new video is posted by that date, it resolves to the lowest possible bracket. This creates a time-bound speculative environment around the creator's output schedule and audience engagement. Analysts and fans closely watch these debut numbers to gauge the performance of new content formats and the enduring appeal of the MrBeast brand, making the 24-hour view count a significant data point in online media.
MrBeast's rise to becoming YouTube's top creator established the 24-hour view record as a significant benchmark. His channel, created in 2012, gained traction through viral challenge and donation videos. A major shift occurred around 2017-2018 with videos like 'Counting To 100,000' and large-scale philanthropic stunts, which demonstrated a formula for massive, predictable viewership. This consistency turned each new upload into an event. The historical precedent for this market is set by MrBeast's own record-breaking launches. For example, in October 2023, his '$1 vs $500,000 Hotel Room!' video garnered approximately 46 million views in its first 24 hours. Earlier in 2023, 'I Survived 7 Days In An Abandoned City' achieved around 59 million first-day views. These figures set the high-end expectations for the market. Prior to MrBeast, first-day view records were often held by music video premieres from artists like Taylor Swift or BTS, or by major trailer drops from film studios. MrBeast's dominance shifted this record into the realm of independent creator content, proving that an individual or small team could reliably outperform traditional media companies in generating immediate online engagement. The historical trend shows a general upward trajectory in his first-day numbers, though with significant variation depending on video concept and promotion.
The first-day view count for a MrBeast video is a leading indicator of its total lifetime viewership and, by extension, its advertising revenue potential. A video that surpasses 50 million views in a day can generate an estimated $500,000 to $1 million in initial YouTube Partner Program ad revenue alone, not including sponsorships. This financial impact ripples through his business empire, funding future projects, charitable donations, and ventures like Feastables and the MrBeast Burger ghost kitchen chain. For the broader digital media industry, these numbers validate a specific content model. They demonstrate the economic viability of extreme production budgets—often exceeding $1 million per video—when paired with massive, guaranteed audience delivery. This influences other creators, investors, and advertisers, shaping content strategies and marketing budgets across social media. The metrics also serve as a barometer for YouTube's health as a platform, showing its capacity to support independent mega-creators.
As of early 2025, MrBeast continues to release videos on his main channel on a regular, though not strictly scheduled, basis. His most recent launches continue to demonstrate the ability to generate tens of millions of views on the first day. The channel's growth has stabilized at its enormous level, but each new video still commands immediate global attention. The content strategy has evolved to include more large-scale survival challenges, elaborate games, and philanthropic experiments, all of which have proven successful in driving initial viewership. The creator's business ventures, including Feastables and his philanthropy channel 'Beast Philanthropy,' create additional promotional avenues that can boost awareness for a main channel video launch.
MrBeast combines a subscriber base of over 300 million with highly effective video concepts designed for virality. He uses compelling thumbnails and titles, often promotes videos across his other social media channels with hundreds of millions of followers, and has a fanbase trained to watch immediately due to consistent, high-quality content. YouTube's algorithm also heavily promotes his new uploads.
The highest verified 24-hour view count for a MrBeast video is approximately 59 million views, achieved by 'I Survived 7 Days In An Abandoned City' in 2023. This record is the benchmark for his most successful launches and is a key data point for prediction markets on his viewership.
While exact figures are private, estimates based on YouTube's CPM (cost per thousand views) rates suggest a video with 50 million first-day views could generate between $500,000 and $1 million in initial ad revenue. This does not include direct sponsorship deals, which often add significant additional revenue.
There is no credible evidence that MrBeast uses artificial means to inflate view counts. Analysts and YouTube itself attribute his viewership to legitimate, organic audience growth and engagement. The consistency and pattern of viewership, including comments and likes, align with genuine user behavior on a massive scale.
MrBeast does not adhere to a strict weekly schedule. The main channel typically releases a new, high-production video every 2-4 weeks. The irregular timing adds an element of anticipation to each launch, which can contribute to the surge of views when a video finally drops.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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