South Carolina Senate Election Winner
PM $1.03M
1
2
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
PM $1.03M
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Darline Graham Nordone (R) at 80.5%.
Polymarket
- Darline Graham Nordone (R)80.5%
- Annie Andrews (D)19.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $1.03M
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied rules describe a market that "will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs" [1]. The event includes two separate binary contracts: one asks whether the Republicans will win and the other asks whether the Democrats will win [1]. Candidates who run as independents "will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party" [1]. A reader should therefore not assume these two contracts cover every possible winner.
The resolution source is "the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC," and the market "will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate" [1]. If the three sources have not called the race for the same candidate, the market resolves "based on the official certification" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not a resolution date or a confirmed result.
Reading the snapshot
The market data was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T23:00:39.611Z [1]. These are two different timestamps, and the prices describe the observation time, not the moment you read this.
At observation, the Republicans contract showed Yes at 0.855 and No at 0.145 [1]. The Democrats contract showed Yes at 0.155 and No at 0.845 [1]. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two Yes prices are separate contracts and should not be combined or averaged into a single estimate.
The sample is complete for the saved provider event: two of two markets are included, and the partial sample flag is false [1]. The source states that all saved markets are included but "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Since independents fall outside both contracts, the absence of a third market does not imply that any omitted outcome has a particular price.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include trading volume, liquidity, trader counts, or explanations for price movement, so none of these can be inferred. The evidence also does not report any race calls, certifications, or news after the observation time. Readers comparing this market with contracts on other platforms should check that the rules, resolution sources, and close times match, because differences in wording can change what each contract pays out [1]. Differing prices across contracts do not by themselves indicate an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: South Carolina Senate Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract is titled South Carolina Senate Election Winner and is tied to the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate election in South Carolina. According to the contract rules, it resolves according to the winner of that election, including any run-offs [1]. Wikipedia describes the election as scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent South Carolina [2]. The contract is framed around parties rather than named individuals. A candidate counts as representing a party if he or she is that party's nominee. Candidates who run as independents are not counted under the Democratic or Republican options, even if they have some affiliation with a party [1]. The rules also state that other candidates, such as Green, Libertarian, or independent candidates, may be added later [1]. The saved event data includes two markets: one asking whether the Republicans will win the race and one asking whether the Democrats will win it, each with Yes and No outcomes [1]. The contract lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. That is the listed end time of the contract, not a date on which the race has been called or the market has resolved. The rules say the market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If those three sources have not all called the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification of the result [1]. The rules also address nominee changes. The contract may name candidates for convenience, and if a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the name will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures which party will win the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate race. Because the rules count run-offs and allow resolution either by a three-network call or official certification, the outcome is tied to how that election is formally decided [1]. Prices on the contract are snapshots of market activity at a given time, so they reflect what traders were offering at that moment rather than a verified probability of either party winning [1]. The two Republican and Democratic markets cover the main party outcomes in the saved event, and the rules indicate that other candidates may be added later [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What election does this contract cover?
It covers the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate election in South Carolina, including any run-offs [1]. Wikipedia states that the election will be held on November 3, 2026 [2].
Would an independent candidate count as a Republican or Democrat?
No. Candidates who run as independents are not encompassed by the Democrat or Republican options, regardless of any affiliation they may have with a party [1].
What happens if a named candidate is replaced before election day?
The contract name will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of that party [1].
When does the market resolve?
The rules say it resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three have not made the same call, it resolves based on the official certification [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z, which is the contract's listed end time rather than the resolution itself [1].
Are the prices on this contract the chance that a party will win?
Not necessarily. Prices are snapshots from the market at a particular time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities of an outcome [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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