$943.74
1
2
$943.74
1
2
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless o
Prediction markets currently price a Republican victory in the 2026 South Carolina Senate election as highly probable. On Polymarket, the contract "Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?" trades at 92 cents, implying a 92% probability. This near-certain pricing indicates the market views the GOP retaining this seat as the overwhelming favorite, with only an 8% implied chance of an upset by a Democrat or other candidate.
Two structural factors heavily drive this pricing. First, South Carolina is a reliably Republican state in federal elections. The incumbent Senator, Tim Scott, won his 2022 re-election by over 20 percentage points. No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race in South Carolina since 1998, establishing a strong historical precedent. Second, the national political environment for the 2026 midterms remains undefined, but the state's deep-red partisan lean is a more powerful and consistent indicator than any potential national wave. The market is essentially pricing in the state's fundamental partisan alignment rather than speculating on specific candidates or short-term dynamics.
The primary catalyst for a significant odds shift would be candidate-specific developments. If popular incumbent Senator Tim Scott, a Republican, were to retire, it could introduce uncertainty, though a GOP nominee would still be favored. A major Democratic recruit, such as a high-profile statewide figure, could tighten the race and lower Republican odds, but such a scenario is currently seen as unlikely. The market's thin liquidity, with only $1,000 in volume, also means prices are more sensitive to new information. Sustained polling showing a single-digit race as the election nears in late 2026 would be necessary to meaningfully challenge the current consensus.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the 2026 United States Senate election in South Carolina. The market will resolve based on which candidate ultimately wins the seat, including any potential run-off elections required under state law. The election will determine who will represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate for a six-year term beginning in January 2027. The seat is currently held by Republican Senator Tim Scott, who was first appointed in 2013 and subsequently won elections in 2014 and 2016. His current term expires on January 3, 2027, making this an open seat race as he is not eligible to run again in 2026 due to term limits for Senate leadership positions he has held. The election occurs during the 2026 midterms, which will feature 33 Senate seats nationwide, including this one. Interest in this market stems from South Carolina's status as a reliably Republican state in federal elections, though with shifting demographic patterns and potential for competitive races, as seen in the 2020 Senate election where Democrat Jaime Harrison challenged Senator Lindsey Graham. The outcome could influence the balance of power in the closely divided U.S. Senate, where Republicans currently hold a narrow majority. Political observers are watching to see if national Democratic organizations will invest heavily in the race, potentially making it competitive, or if Republicans will maintain their stronghold. The race may also serve as a referendum on the political climate midway through the presidential term following the 2024 election.
South Carolina has elected Republicans to the U.S. Senate consistently since Strom Thurmond's party switch in 1964. The state's last Democratic senator was Fritz Hollings, who served from 1966 to 2005. Since then, both Senate seats have remained in Republican hands. The 2020 Senate election between incumbent Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison became the most expensive Senate race in history at that time, with over $300 million spent, though Graham ultimately won by 10 percentage points. This demonstrated that while South Carolina leans Republican, well-funded Democratic challenges can make races competitive. In 2014, Tim Scott won his first full term with 61% of the vote against Democrat Joyce Dickerson. He was re-elected in 2016 with 61% against Democrat Thomas Dixon. The 2022 Senate race featured Republican incumbent Tim Scott winning with 62.5% of the vote against Democrat Krystle Matthews. These results show consistent Republican strength but with varying margins. Historically, South Carolina has required run-off elections when no candidate receives over 50% of the vote in a primary, a rule that has shaped campaign strategies in past elections. The state's political landscape has been dominated by Republican control since the early 2000s, with Republicans holding both Senate seats, all but one congressional seat, the governorship, and supermajorities in the state legislature.
The outcome of this Senate race will help determine control of the U.S. Senate, which has been narrowly divided in recent years. With many policy decisions hanging on single votes, each Senate seat carries enormous national significance for legislation on issues ranging from healthcare and taxes to judicial confirmations and foreign policy. A Democratic victory in South Carolina would represent a major political realignment in the South and could signal changing demographics in traditionally Republican states. For South Carolina specifically, the election matters because seniority in the Senate translates to committee assignments and influence over federal spending. The state has benefited from having senators with seniority who can direct resources to military bases, ports, and infrastructure projects. The race will also test whether the Democratic Party's increased investment in Southern states yields results or whether Republicans can maintain their dominance in the region. Downstream consequences include potential impacts on presidential politics, as South Carolina holds an early presidential primary for Republicans and has recently been positioned as the first Democratic primary state.
As of late 2024, the 2026 South Carolina Senate race remains in its earliest stages with no declared candidates. Senator Tim Scott has confirmed he will not seek re-election due to Republican conference term limits for leadership positions he has held. Potential candidates from both parties are reportedly considering runs but have not made formal announcements. The Republican field is expected to be crowded, with several members of South Carolina's congressional delegation and possibly statewide officeholders considering campaigns. Democratic prospects may depend on whether the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee targets the race as potentially competitive. Fundraising networks are beginning to activate, though formal campaign committees cannot be established until 2025 under federal election law. The political environment will be shaped by the outcome of the 2024 presidential election and any resulting shifts in national party momentum.
As of late 2024, no candidates have officially declared for the 2026 South Carolina Senate race. Potential Republican candidates include Congresswoman Nancy Mace, Congressman William Timmons, and possibly Governor Henry McMaster. On the Democratic side, former Congressman Joe Cunningham and state legislators are considered potential candidates.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Primaries will likely be held in June 2026, with possible run-off elections in late June if no candidate receives over 50% of the primary vote. These dates are consistent with South Carolina's election calendar.
Yes, but not recently. The last Democratic U.S. Senator from South Carolina was Fritz Hollings, who served from 1966 to 2005. Since Hollings' retirement, both of South Carolina's Senate seats have been held by Republicans.
The 2020 Senate race between Lindsey Graham and Jaime Harrison set a national record at the time with over $300 million in total spending. The 2022 race between Tim Scott and Krystle Matthews saw significantly less spending, approximately $50 million total.
As of 2024, South Carolina has approximately 3.4 million registered voters. Republicans comprise about 44% of registered voters, Democrats about 42%, and independents or other parties about 14%. These numbers don't necessarily predict election outcomes due to differential turnout.
South Carolina requires a runoff election if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in a primary. The runoff is held two weeks after the primary. This system has historically favored candidates with strong bases rather than pluralities, affecting campaign strategies.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
2 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 92% |
 | Poly | 9% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/BnRzoN" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="South Carolina Senate Election Winner"></iframe>