$505.67K
1
6
$505.67K
1
6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degree
Traders on prediction markets currently see a near-even split on how much warmer the planet will be this month compared to historical averages. The leading forecast suggests there is roughly a coin flip chance that the global temperature anomaly for February 2026 will fall between 1.15 and 1.19 degrees Celsius. This means the collective intelligence of the market is essentially uncertain, viewing a result in that narrow band as just as likely as not. Other closely tracked outcomes include temperatures above or below that range, but none have higher implied odds.
The uncertainty stems from competing climate signals. On one hand, the underlying trend of human-caused global warming continues to push temperatures upward. The past nine years have been the nine warmest on record. On the other hand, the major El Niño event that boosted global heat in 2023-2024 has ended. The world is now in a neutral phase, moving toward a potential La Niña later this year. This shift can have a temporary moderating effect on global average temperatures, making extreme new records slightly less likely in the short term. The current odds reflect a tug-of-war between these two forces: the long-term warming trend and the changing short-term ocean cycle.
The definitive answer will come around March 15, when NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is expected to publish its Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data for February. This is the primary source for resolving the prediction market. In the days before that release, traders may watch for preliminary temperature analyses from other climate agencies, like the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, which often publishes its monthly reports slightly earlier. Any surprising data in those earlier reports could shift the market’s odds.
Prediction markets have a mixed record on highly specific, short-term climate metrics. They are better at aggregating known public data and trends than at forecasting unpredictable weather or climate variability. For a metric like this, the market is essentially synthesizing the same scientific data and seasonal forecasts available to experts. Its main value is in providing a quantified, collective judgment on the odds. However, the narrowness of the temperature band in question (just 0.04°C) means that even skilled forecasting has limits. Small, chaotic variations in weather patterns can push the final number above or below the predicted range, making this a difficult target to pin down.
Prediction markets on Polymarket currently price a 47% chance that the global land-ocean temperature anomaly for February 2026 will fall between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC above the pre-industrial baseline. This near-even probability reflects significant uncertainty. The market essentially views this specific 0.04ºC band as a coin flip. The second most probable outcome is the adjacent 1.20ºC to 1.24ºC bracket, trading at 28%. Combined, these two brackets hold a 75% chance, indicating traders expect February 2026's anomaly to be near recent record highs.
The pricing is anchored by the observed trend of accelerating temperatures. February 2024 set a record at 1.77ºC above pre-industrial levels, but that spike was amplified by a strong El Niño event. The market for February 2026, which will likely see neutral or La Niña conditions, prices a reversion toward the underlying warming trend. The 1.15-1.19ºC range aligns closely with the 2023 annual anomaly of 1.18ºC, a year before El Niño's peak influence. Traders are likely using 2023 as a baseline reference for a "non-peak-El-Niño" year, then adding a small increment for continued background warming.
A second factor is the timing of resolution. The market settles in just nine days based on the initial data release, not later revisions. This short window increases focus on recent model forecasts and climatological patterns for the just-completed month, reducing the long-term uncertainty typically associated with climate predictions.
The final odds will be determined by the actual temperature data released around March 10. The primary risk to the consensus is the persistence of ocean heat. If global sea surface temperatures remain at record-high levels beyond typical El Niño decay, the February 2026 anomaly could easily surpass the 1.20ºC threshold, shifting probability into the higher brackets. Conversely, a rapid transition to a strong La Niña could suppress global temperatures more than models currently project, making outcomes below 1.15ºC more likely.
Given the market resolves on initial data, any preliminary reports or leaks from climate agencies like NASA or NOAA in the coming days could cause last-minute volatility. The moderate $500K volume means a relatively small amount of informed capital could move the final probabilities.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the global temperature anomaly for February 2026, as measured by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (L-OTI). The market resolves based on the initial reported value for that specific month, expressed in degrees Celsius relative to a 1951-1980 baseline. This index is a primary dataset used by climate scientists to track planetary warming, calculated from thousands of weather stations, Antarctic research stations, and ship- and buoy-based sea surface temperature measurements. The February 2026 figure will be one data point in the ongoing record of global climate change. Interest in this specific monthly reading stems from its potential to signal short-term climate trends, influence policy discussions, and provide evidence for the accelerating pace of warming predicted by climate models. The market allows participants to speculate on whether the observed warming will meet, exceed, or fall short of projections for that period, reflecting collective judgment on climate system behavior. The resolution depends on a single, publicly released data point, making it a precise instrument for gauging expectations about near-term climate conditions.
NASA's modern temperature record began in 1880, but the consistent global coverage of the Land-Ocean Temperature Index was fully established in the satellite and buoy era. The baseline period of 1951-1980 was chosen as a stable climatic reference before rapid late-20th century warming became dominant. February temperature anomalies have shown significant variability but a clear upward trend. For example, February 2016 recorded an anomaly of approximately 1.34°C above the baseline, driven by a strong El Niño event, making it the warmest February in the record at that time. This record was subsequently broken in February 2020, which reached about 1.19°C, and again in February 2024, which saw an anomaly of approximately 1.44°C. The progression of these records demonstrates both the long-term warming signal and the influence of natural variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on individual monthly readings. The February value is particularly monitored as it can indicate the strength of Northern Hemisphere winter warming and set the tone for annual temperature rankings. Past Februaries with extreme anomalies have often, but not always, preceded record-warm calendar years.
The February 2026 temperature anomaly is a single data point in a planetary-scale diagnostic. A significantly high value would provide immediate, quantifiable evidence of ongoing climate change, influencing scientific consensus, media coverage, and public perception. It could strengthen arguments for more aggressive emissions reduction policies in international forums like the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties. Conversely, a lower-than-expected anomaly might be used by critics to question the urgency of climate action, despite the long-term trend. Economically, extreme monthly temperatures are linked to tangible impacts, including altered agricultural growing seasons, increased energy demand for heating or cooling, and stress on infrastructure. For the insurance and reinsurance industries, such data feeds into risk models for weather-related disasters. Socially, these figures make abstract global warming concrete, potentially mobilizing civic engagement or contributing to climate anxiety. The specific resolution of this market reflects a collective forecast about the physical state of the climate system, with implications for how societies understand and respond to environmental change.
As of early 2025, the most recent complete data is for 2024. According to NASA GISS, 2024 was the warmest year on record, continuing a streak of extreme global heat. The El Niño event that peaked in late 2023 transitioned to neutral conditions by mid-2024. Forecasts from climate prediction centers, such as the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, are beginning to project the state of the ENSO cycle for early 2026. These projections will be a primary input for anticipating whether February 2026 will be influenced by a warming El Niño, a cooling La Niña, or neutral conditions. The trend of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, which reached approximately 425 parts per million for CO2 in 2024, provides the constant background forcing for higher temperatures.
It is a measure of global surface temperature change maintained by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It combines land surface air temperature data from meteorological stations with sea surface temperature data from ships and buoys, calculating an anomaly relative to the 1951-1980 average.
The 1951-1980 period represents a stable climatic baseline with good global data coverage. It is a practical reference for the temperature record. To compare to pre-industrial levels (often defined as 1850-1900), scientists add approximately 0.3-0.4°C to the GISS anomaly, as that earlier period was cooler.
NASA GISS typically releases its monthly global temperature analysis around the middle of the following month. The data for February 2026 would therefore be published publicly in mid-March 2026, at which point this prediction market would resolve.
No. Climate change is defined by long-term trends over decades. A single month's data, whether high or low, is weather-influenced variability. The significance of a monthly record is that it occurs within the context of a clear, long-term warming trend documented over more than a century.
Both agencies use largely the same raw data but apply different methods to process it, especially for interpolating temperatures in data-sparse regions like the Arctic. The results are extremely similar over the long term, but monthly anomalies can differ by a few hundredths of a degree.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
6 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 45% |
| Poly | 33% |
| Poly | 20% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 2% |
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