$4.92M
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42
$4.92M
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42
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
The 2026 State of the Union address is scheduled to be held in the Chamber of the U.S. House of Representatives on February 24, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the 2026 State of the Union address. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, attending the State of the Union address is defined as being in physical a
Prediction markets currently give Jared Kushner a 100% chance of attending the 2026 State of the Union address. In practical terms, traders are essentially certain he will be there. This level of confidence is unusually high for a political event over a year away, reflecting a strong consensus among thousands of people betting real money.
Two main factors explain this near-certain prediction. First, Jared Kushner is former President Donald Trump's son-in-law and was a senior White House advisor. If Trump wins the 2024 election, Kushner would likely be invited as a guest of the sitting president, a common practice for family and former officials. The market odds are heavily tied to the outcome of the 2024 presidential race.
Second, the structure of the prediction market itself influences the price. The contract will resolve to "No" if the event is canceled or postponed beyond March 31, 2026. Since the State of the Union is a constitutionally suggested address, an outright cancellation is historically almost unheard of. Traders may see the "No" outcome as so unlikely that they are willing to buy "Yes" shares even at a very high price, pushing the probability to its maximum.
The decisive event is the U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024. The winner will be the one delivering the 2026 address and controlling the guest list. If President Joe Biden is re-elected, an invitation for Kushner seems far less probable. The market's current certainty would likely drop significantly after a Biden victory. Other dates are the official announcement of the 2026 address details and the release of the guest list, typically in the weeks before the speech.
Prediction markets are generally good at aggregating collective intelligence on political events, but this specific forecast has important caveats. The 100% probability is less a precise forecast and more a reflection of market mechanics and a strong assumed link to the 2024 election result. Markets can be wrong, especially when betting on singular personal decisions like a guest invitation. The real test will come after the 2024 election, when the odds should adjust to reflect the new political reality. For now, the market is expressing a high-conviction bet on a specific 2024 election outcome and its consequences.
Prediction markets on Polymarket are pricing in a near-certainty that Jared Kushner will attend the 2026 State of the Union address. The "Yes" contract trades at 100 cents, implying a 99%+ probability. This price indicates traders see his attendance as virtually guaranteed, with no meaningful financial risk priced in for a no-show. The market has attracted high liquidity, with $4.9 million in total volume across related attendance markets, suggesting strong trader conviction.
The 100% price reflects Kushner's status as a former senior White House advisor and his familial connection to a past president. Historically, presidential family members, especially those who held formal advisory roles, are common attendees at State of the Union addresses as guests of sitting lawmakers. The market is likely pricing in the high probability that a Republican member of Congress, potentially aligned with the Trump political sphere, would extend a guest invitation to Kushner for the 2026 speech. This is treated as a standard political courtesy rather than a contingent event.
Given the resolution is set for late February 2026, the current 100% price leaves almost no room for error. The only realistic path for the odds to shift would be a definitive, public statement from Kushner himself or an organizing authority that he will not attend, which is considered highly unlikely. The market rules also state that a cancellation or postponement of the address beyond March 31, 2026, would result in a "No" resolution. An unprecedented delay or cancellation of the constitutional event itself, perhaps due to a national emergency, is the sole systemic risk to the current pricing. Traders are effectively betting that such a disruption will not occur.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on attendance at the 2026 State of the Union address, a constitutionally mandated annual report from the President of the United States to a joint session of Congress. The event, scheduled for February 24, 2026, in the House Chamber, is a major political spectacle where attendance is often symbolic. Beyond the required presence of members of Congress, the Supreme Court, and the Cabinet, invitations to guests in the First Lady's box and attendance by other dignitaries are closely watched for political messaging. Interest in who attends stems from the event's role as a platform for visual political statements, bipartisan gestures, and signaling priorities through guest selection. Recent addresses have featured guests representing policy issues, from healthcare and immigration to veterans' affairs and economic initiatives. The 2026 address will occur during a presidential election year, potentially amplifying the political theater and significance of attendance decisions as both the sitting president and political opponents use the event to frame their campaigns.
The State of the Union address originates from Article II, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution, which states the president 'shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union.' For over a century, it was delivered as a written report. President Woodrow Wilson revived the in-person speech in 1913. The event was first televised in 1947 under President Harry Truman and first broadcast live in color in 1966 during Lyndon B. Johnson's address. A significant modern precedent for guest symbolism was set in 1982, when President Ronald Reagan invited Lenny Skutnik, a bystander who rescued survivors from a plane crash in the Potomac River. This established the tradition of highlighting 'heroes' in the gallery. Another key precedent is the 'designated survivor' protocol, formally instituted in the 1960s during the Cold War to ensure continuity of government. Attendance boycotts have also occurred. In 2019, at least a dozen Democratic lawmakers boycotted President Trump's address, while in 2020, Speaker Nancy Pelosi tore up a copy of Trump's speech on camera after he concluded, demonstrating how the event can become a stage for protest.
Attendance decisions at the State of the Union are a form of political communication with real consequences. A lawmaker's choice to attend, boycott, or bring a specific guest sends signals to their base, the media, and opposing parties. These signals can influence fundraising, media narratives, and primary election challenges. For the administration, guest selection is a direct public relations tool to shape the news cycle for days following the speech, driving coverage toward preferred policy topics. The event also has security and logistical implications. The concentration of nearly the entire line of presidential succession in one room requires a massive security operation coordinated by the U.S. Capitol Police, Secret Service, and other agencies. Any deviation from standard attendance, such as a widespread boycott or an unusual foreign dignitary presence, complicates these plans and consumes significant government resources.
As of late 2024, planning for the 2026 State of the Union is in its earliest stages, contingent on the outcome of the November 2024 presidential election. The identity of the president who will deliver the 2026 address remains unknown. The event date of February 24, 2026, has been tentatively scheduled by congressional leadership, but the official invitation from the Speaker of the House to the president will not be issued until early 2026. Political operatives and protocol offices are likely considering potential guest lists and attendance strategies aligned with the political climate of a heated election year.
No, attendance is not mandatory for members of Congress, but it is a strong tradition. Many attend, but absences occur due to scheduling conflicts, protests, or official business.
The Vice President and the Speaker of the House sit directly behind the president. The Vice President presides over the Senate, and the Speaker presides over the House, representing both chambers of Congress.
No, the general public cannot attend. Attendance is by invitation only, extended to members of Congress, the Cabinet, the Supreme Court, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Diplomatic Corps, and specific guests of the First Lady and lawmakers.
If the president is unable to deliver the address, a written message is sent to Congress. This has happened occasionally, such as in 1945 when President Franklin D. Roosevelt sent a written report due to illness during World War II.
The designated survivor is a cabinet member selected by the White House in consultation with security agencies. The choice is typically a natural-born citizen eligible for the presidency and is kept secret until just before the event begins.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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