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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner

Name: MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner
End: 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$42.47K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner

Vol

$42.47K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $42.47K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $42.47K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?	Poly	59%
Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?	Poly	38%
Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?	Poly	30%
Will Tripp Adams be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?	Poly	1%
Will Brian Jaye be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

59%

Top Probability

$42.47K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. A

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 4, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

A

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announ"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $42.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.3K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 13.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $30.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Tripp Adams be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Brian Jaye be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics