Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which states will Republicans win a trifecta in 2026?

Total Volume

$4.76K

Events

Markets

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Which states will Republicans win a trifecta in 2026?

Vol

$4.76K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $4.76K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.76K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Republican trifecta in Florida?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Republican trifecta in Florida?	Kalshi	79%
Republican trifecta in Texas?	Kalshi	73%
Republican trifecta in Kansas?	Kalshi	70%
Republican trifecta in Georgia?	Kalshi	48%
Republican trifecta in Ohio?	Kalshi	33%
Republican trifecta in New Hampshire?	Kalshi	22%
Republican trifecta in Wisconsin?	Kalshi	15%
Republican trifecta in Iowa?	Kalshi	12%
Republican trifecta in Alaska?	Kalshi	10%
Republican trifecta in Arizona?	Kalshi	8%
Republican trifecta in Michigan?	Kalshi	6%
Republican trifecta in Vermont?	Kalshi	6%
Republican trifecta in Nevada?	Kalshi	6%
Republican trifecta in Minnesota?	Kalshi	5%
Republican trifecta in Pennsylvania?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

79%

Top Probability

$4.76K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

On Nov 3, 2026 If ALL of the Republican candidate X win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Each state market requires the Republican candidate to win the 2026 election for Governor and the Republican Party to win the most seats in both chambers of that state's legislature. Each chamber is decided by its full membership after the November 3, 2026 general election, including members whose seats were not on the 2026 ballot. For Alaska, any Republican candidate for Governo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which states will Republicans win a trifecta in 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 3, 2026

If ALL of the Republican candidate X win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Each state market requires the Republican candidate to win the 2026 election for Governor and the Republican Party to win the most seats in both chambers of that state's legislature. Each chamber is decided by its full membership after the November 3, 2026 general election, including members whose seats were not on the 2026 ballot. For Alaska, any Republican candidate for Governo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If ALL of the Republican candidate for Governor of Ohio, the Republican Party in the Ohio Senate, and the Republican Party in the Ohio House of Representatives win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each state market requires the Republican candidate to win"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Republican trifecta in Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $923
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Republican trifecta in Iowa?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $636
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Republican trifecta in New Hampshire?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Republican trifecta in Georgia?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Republican trifecta in Florida?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $427
  DATA: [Yes: 79.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Republican trifecta in Texas?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Republican trifecta in Kansas?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 70.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Republican trifecta in Wisconsin?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $426
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Republican trifecta in Vermont?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Republican trifecta in Pennsylvania?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $205
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Republican trifecta in Nevada?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Republican trifecta in Minnesota?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Republican trifecta in Michigan?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $73
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Republican trifecta in Arizona?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Republican trifecta in Alaska?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which states will Republicans win a trifecta in 2026?

Volume$4.76K

Markets15

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KALSHI

Republican trifecta in Florida?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 79.0¢No 21.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Republican trifecta in Florida?

If ALL of the Republican candidate for Governor of Florida, the Republican Party in the Florida Senate, and the Republican Party in the Florida House of Representatives win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each state market requires the Republican candida

KALSHI

Republican trifecta in Texas?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.0¢No 27.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Republican trifecta in Texas?

If ALL of the Republican candidate for Governor of Texas, the Republican Party in the Texas Senate, and the Republican Party in the Texas House of Representatives win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each state market requires the Republican candidate to

KALSHI

Republican trifecta in Kansas?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.0¢No 30.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Republican trifecta in Kansas?

If ALL of the Republican candidate for Governor of Kansas, the Republican Party in the Kansas Senate, and the Republican Party in the Kansas House of Representatives win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each state market requires the Republican candidate

KALSHI

Republican trifecta in Georgia?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.0¢No 52.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Republican trifecta in Georgia?

If ALL of the Republican candidate for Governor of Georgia, the Republican Party in the Georgia Senate, and the Republican Party in the Georgia House of Representatives win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each state market requires the Republican candida

KALSHI

Republican trifecta in Ohio?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 32.5¢No 67.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Republican trifecta in Ohio?

If ALL of the Republican candidate for Governor of Ohio, the Republican Party in the Ohio Senate, and the Republican Party in the Ohio House of Representatives win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each state market requires the Republican candidate to win

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Which states will Republicans win a trifecta in 2026?

Which states will Republicans win a trifecta in 2026?

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Republican trifecta in Florida?

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Events (1)

Which states will Republicans win a trifecta in 2026?

Markets (15)

Republican trifecta in Florida?

Republican trifecta in Florida?

Republican trifecta in Texas?

Republican trifecta in Texas?

Republican trifecta in Kansas?

Republican trifecta in Kansas?

Republican trifecta in Georgia?

Republican trifecta in Georgia?

Republican trifecta in Ohio?

Republican trifecta in Ohio?

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Republican trifecta in Florida?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which states will Republicans win a trifecta in 2026?

Republican trifecta in Florida?

Republican trifecta in Florida?

Republican trifecta in Texas?

Republican trifecta in Texas?

Republican trifecta in Kansas?

Republican trifecta in Kansas?

Republican trifecta in Georgia?

Republican trifecta in Georgia?

Republican trifecta in Ohio?

Republican trifecta in Ohio?

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