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$73.49K
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$73.49K
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11
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Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of February 7, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is n
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on which song will reach the number one position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week dated February 21, 2026. The Billboard Hot 100 is the definitive weekly ranking of the most popular songs in the United States, based on a weighted formula incorporating sales, radio airplay, and streaming data. The chart is compiled by MRC Data and published by Billboard magazine every Tuesday, reflecting consumption data from the previous Friday through Thursday. Each chart is titled with the date of the upcoming Saturday, making the 'Week of February 21, 2026' the chart reflecting data from approximately February 13-19, 2026. The identity of the number one song is a significant cultural and commercial indicator, often reflecting broader musical trends, marketing campaigns, and audience engagement. Interest in predicting the chart-topper stems from music industry professionals, artists, fans, and financial analysts who track music's economic impact. The specific week in late February is historically a competitive period, following the post-holiday lull and preceding the spring release season, making chart movements less predictable and more dependent on sustained hits or surprise viral successes. The resolution of this market depends entirely on the official publication of the chart by Billboard, typically on the Tuesday before the listed date.
The Billboard Hot 100 was launched on August 4, 1958, combining earlier charts for best-selling singles and most-played jukebox songs. Its first number one was 'Poor Little Fool' by Ricky Nelson. The chart's methodology has evolved dramatically, reflecting changes in music consumption. In 1991, Billboard transitioned from relying on store reports to using electronically tracked sales data via Nielsen SoundScan, which provided more accurate and tamper-resistant figures. This shift immediately altered the chart, with country and hip-hop acts gaining higher positions. The digital download era, marked by the rise of iTunes in the 2000s, was formally incorporated into the chart formula in 2005. The most seismic change occurred in the 2010s with the rise of streaming. Billboard began including on-demand audio streams in its formula in 2007 and YouTube video streams in 2013. In 2020, the company adjusted the formula to weight paid subscription streams more heavily than ad-supported streams, a move that benefited artists from major labels. Historically, the week of February 21 has seen diverse number ones, from classic rock in the 1970s to hip-hop and pop in the 2000s and 2020s, demonstrating its position as a period where holiday season releases have faded and spring contenders are just emerging.
The number one spot on the Hot 100 is a powerful economic and cultural signal. For the music industry, a chart-topping song can generate millions of dollars in revenue from streaming royalties, sync licensing for films and advertisements, and increased demand for concert tickets. It validates marketing campaigns and can trigger bonus payments for artists and executives. Culturally, a number one song becomes part of the historical record, defining the musical mood of a specific moment. It receives amplified media coverage and becomes a reference point in popular culture. The chart also reflects technological and social shifts. The dominance of streaming in the formula shows how listening habits have moved from ownership to access. The types of music that reach number one can indicate broader demographic trends and the rising influence of specific fan communities, such as K-pop stans or country music listeners on TikTok. For artists, a number one hit can permanently alter their career trajectory, opening doors to larger tours, brand partnerships, and long-term industry credibility.
As of late 2024, the path to number one is dominated by strategic release cycles and streaming platform partnerships. Major artists often coordinate single releases with music video premieres on YouTube and placement on key Spotify and Apple Music playlists to maximize first-week streams. TikTok virality remains a powerful but unpredictable catalyst, capable of propelling older songs or unknown artists into contention. The chart has seen increased volatility, with songs sometimes debuting at number one only to fall sharply the following week. The competition for the February 21, 2026, chart will be shaped by release schedules set in late 2025 and early 2026, which are not yet public. Contenders could include established superstars with planned album cycles, surprise viral hits from social media, or songs featured in major film or television releases from the preceding holiday season.
The Billboard Hot 100 chart is published every Tuesday morning on Billboard's website. The chart reflects streaming, sales, and radio airplay data collected from the previous Friday through Thursday.
The Hot 100 uses a weighted formula from data provider Luminate. It combines U.S. streaming data (audio and video), digital and physical song sales, and terrestrial radio airplay. Streaming is the most heavily weighted factor, followed by radio, then sales.
Yes, if it experiences a massive surge in consumption. This is often driven by a viral moment on TikTok, use in a popular TV show or movie, or a notable event involving the artist. Kate Bush's 'Running Up That Hill' re-entered and peaked at number 3 in 2022 after featuring in Stranger Things.
The chart's title, like 'Week of February 21, 2026,' is the dated week ending on that Saturday. The tracking week is the period of data collection, which is the seven days from the previous Friday through Thursday. The chart published on Tuesday, February 17, 2026, would be dated February 21 and track data from February 13-19.
Yes. Official, user-generated, lyric, and audio videos on YouTube are counted in the streaming component of the Hot 100 formula, provided they are on an official artist channel or are user-generated content licensed by the rights holder.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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