This prediction market focuses on which song will reach the number one position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week dated February 21, 2026. The Billboard Hot 100 is the definitive weekly ranking of the most popular songs in the United States, based on a weighted formula incorporating sales, radio airplay, and streaming data. The chart is compiled by MRC Data and published by Billboard magazine every Tuesday, reflecting consumption data from the previous Friday through Thursday. Each chart is titled with the date of the upcoming Saturday, making the 'Week of February 21, 2026' the chart reflecting data from approximately February 13-19, 2026. The identity of the number one song is a significant cultural and commercial indicator, often reflecting broader musical trends, marketing campaigns, and audience engagement. Interest in predicting the chart-topper stems from music industry professionals, artists, fans, and financial analysts who track music's economic impact. The specific week in late February is historically a competitive period, following the post-holiday lull and preceding the spring release season, making chart movements less predictable and more dependent on sustained hits or surprise viral successes. The resolution of this market depends entirely on the official publication of the chart by Billboard, typically on the Tuesday before the listed date.

Historical Context

The Billboard Hot 100 was launched on August 4, 1958, combining earlier charts for best-selling singles and most-played jukebox songs. Its first number one was 'Poor Little Fool' by Ricky Nelson. The chart's methodology has evolved dramatically, reflecting changes in music consumption. In 1991, Billboard transitioned from relying on store reports to using electronically tracked sales data via Nielsen SoundScan, which provided more accurate and tamper-resistant figures. This shift immediately altered the chart, with country and hip-hop acts gaining higher positions. The digital download era, marked by the rise of iTunes in the 2000s, was formally incorporated into the chart formula in 2005. The most seismic change occurred in the 2010s with the rise of streaming. Billboard began including on-demand audio streams in its formula in 2007 and YouTube video streams in 2013. In 2020, the company adjusted the formula to weight paid subscription streams more heavily than ad-supported streams, a move that benefited artists from major labels. Historically, the week of February 21 has seen diverse number ones, from classic rock in the 1970s to hip-hop and pop in the 2000s and 2020s, demonstrating its position as a period where holiday season releases have faded and spring contenders are just emerging.

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