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$136.58K
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in 2026 If X wins the 2026 Nepal House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomin
Prediction markets currently give the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) a better-than-even chance of winning the most seats in Nepal's 2026 House of Representatives election. The collective betting translates to roughly a 3 in 5 probability. This means traders see the RSP as the most likely single party to lead the next parliament, though the outcome is far from certain.
Two main factors are shaping these odds. First, the RSP performed surprisingly well as a new party in the 2022 election, winning 20 seats and entering the ruling coalition. Its anti-establishment message and appeal to younger, urban voters have given it momentum in a political scene long dominated by the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML.
Second, Nepal's politics are famously unstable, with frequent changes in coalition governments. The two largest traditional parties are often seen as part of the same problem by frustrated voters. Markets may be pricing in a continued shift away from these older parties, with the RSP positioned as a viable alternative that could gain more seats if public dissatisfaction grows.
The election is still about two years away, so predictions are highly sensitive to political developments. Major signals to watch will be the performance and stability of the current coalition government, which includes the RSP. Any major split or collapse of this government could reshuffle alliances. Local elections or by-elections held before 2026 will also serve as important indicators of shifting voter support. Finally, the formal registration of any major new electoral alliances or coalitions will directly change the betting landscape.
For political elections, prediction markets have a mixed but often insightful record. They are good at aggregating diverse information, but their accuracy improves as the event gets closer. For an election two years out, these odds are a snapshot of current sentiment and are likely to change significantly. The market's moderate volume suggests this is an informed guess, not a consensus forecast. A major limitation is that Nepal's proportional representation system and complex coalition politics make "winning" the most seats different from forming a government, adding uncertainty to the final outcome.
Prediction markets currently assign a 61% probability to the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) winning the 2026 Nepal House of Representatives election. This price, found on both Polymarket and Kalshi, indicates the market views an RSP victory as the most likely outcome. A 61% chance suggests a clear but fragile favorite status, implying significant perceived competition. The combined trading volume of $135,000 across 15 related markets shows moderate liquidity and serious trader engagement in this political forecast.
The RSP's frontrunner position stems from its disruptive performance in the 2022 election, where it became the fourth-largest party in the federal parliament as a new entrant. Its anti-establishment platform and appeal to urban and youth voters have eroded the traditional dominance of the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML. Current pricing reflects a belief that this momentum is sustainable. The party's leadership under Rabi Lamichhane, despite facing legal controversies, has maintained a cohesive public image focused on governance reform. Market odds also factor in the persistent fragmentation among older, established parties, which creates an opening for a disciplined new party to secure a plurality.
The election is over a year away, leaving ample time for volatility. A major catalyst will be the final composition of pre-election coalitions. If the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML form a strategic alliance to block the RSP, the current odds would shift dramatically. Internal stability within the RSP is another variable. Any significant legal verdict against Lamichhane or a major split in the party would likely crash its market price. Conversely, a successful merger with a mid-sized party or a clear polling lead as the election nears could push the RSP's probability above 70%. Monitoring local election results and coalition talks in the coming months will provide the next concrete signals.
The event is listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with prices closely aligned near 61 cents. This parity indicates efficient arbitrage between platforms and a consensus among informed traders. The absence of a meaningful spread suggests no major platform-specific liquidity issues or regulatory concerns are distorting the price. Traders appear to be using both venues interchangeably, creating a unified market assessment for this political event.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of Nepal's next House of Representatives election, scheduled for 2026. The House of Representatives, or Pratinidhi Sabha, is the lower house of Nepal's Federal Parliament. Elections are held every five years using a mixed electoral system where 165 members are elected through first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies, and 110 members are elected through proportional representation from closed party lists. The party or coalition that secures a majority of the 275 total seats forms the government. The 2026 election will be the third since Nepal adopted its current federal republican constitution in 2015, following votes in 2017 and 2022. The political landscape is characterized by a fragmented multi-party system where coalition governments are the norm, often involving complex negotiations between major and regional parties. Interest in the 2026 election stems from its potential to either consolidate or disrupt the current political order. Observers are watching to see if the dominant Nepali Congress and CPN (UML) can maintain their positions, or if newer parties and alliances can gain significant ground. The election's outcome will directly determine the country's leadership and policy direction for the subsequent five-year term, influencing everything from foreign investment to constitutional implementation.
Nepal's modern electoral history began after the 1990 constitution established a constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy. The first House of Representatives election under this system was held in 1991, won by the Nepali Congress. Political instability followed, exacerbated by the Maoist insurgency that started in 1996. A major shift occurred in 2006 with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which ended the civil war and led to the abolition of the monarchy in 2008. The first Constituent Assembly election was held that year. After years of deadlock, a new constitution was promulgated in September 2015, establishing Nepal as a federal democratic republic. The first House of Representatives election under this constitution was held in two phases in 2017. It resulted in a landslide victory for the left alliance of the CPN-UML and Maoist Centre, which later merged to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP). That merger unraveled in 2021, leading to political crisis. The most recent election in November 2022 produced a hung parliament. The Nepali Congress emerged as the largest single party with 89 seats, but no party won a majority. A complex coalition government was formed under Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, supported by the Nepali Congress, Maoist Centre, and several smaller parties. This history of fragile coalitions sets the precedent for the 2026 contest.
The 2026 election will determine Nepal's economic trajectory and governance for the next half-decade. The winning coalition's policies will directly impact critical issues like attracting foreign direct investment, managing national debt, and implementing large-scale infrastructure projects. Political stability, or the lack thereof, influences investor confidence and the pace of post-earthquake reconstruction. On a geopolitical level, the election outcome shapes Nepal's delicate balancing act between its two powerful neighbors, India and China. Different parties have historically leaned towards closer ties with one or the other, affecting trade, aid, and strategic partnerships. Socially, the election is a test of Nepal's federal system. Regional parties based in the Madhesh and other provinces will compete for influence, and their success or failure could affect national unity and the implementation of federal rights. The election also serves as a barometer for public faith in democratic institutions after years of perceived corruption and instability.
As of late 2024, Nepal is governed by a coalition led by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre, with crucial support from the Nepali Congress and other parties. This coalition has faced internal tensions and several no-confidence motions, highlighting its fragility. Major parties have begun informal preparations for the 2026 election, including internal reviews and early discussions on potential alliances. The performance of newer parties like the Rastriya Swatantra Party in upcoming local by-elections is being watched as an indicator of their national potential. The Election Commission has initiated preparatory work, including updating the voter roll and planning for logistics.
Voters cast two ballots. One elects a local representative from their constituency via first-past-the-post, deciding 165 seats. The second is a vote for a political party at the national level, which determines the allocation of 110 proportional representation seats based on each party's total vote share.
Any Nepali citizen who is 18 years of age or older on the date of voter registration is eligible. Citizens must be listed on the national voter roll maintained by the Election Commission. Voting is not compulsory.
The 2022 election resulted in a hung parliament. The Nepali Congress won 89 seats, the CPN-UML won 78, and the Maoist Centre won 32. A coalition government was formed led by Maoist Centre chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, supported by the Nepali Congress and other parties.
Key issues include economic management and job creation, implementation of federalism, corruption, infrastructure development, and managing foreign relations, particularly with India and China. Social issues like citizenship laws and inclusion of marginalized communities are also prominent.
Yes, independent candidates can contest the 165 first-past-the-post constituency seats. They cannot contest the 110 proportional representation seats, which are allocated only to registered political parties based on their lists.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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in 2026 If X wins the 2026 Nepal House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomin
Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in Nepal’s House of Representatives (Pratinidhi Sabha) as a result of this election. If voting in the next Nepali election for the House of Representatives does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by
Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in Nepal’s House of Representatives (Pratinidhi Sabha) as a result of this election. If voting in the next Nepali electi
If RSP wins the 2026 Nepal House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or
Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in Nepal’s House of Representatives (Pratinidhi Sabha) as a result of this election. If voting in the next Nepali electi
If Congress wins the 2026 Nepal House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If bot
Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in Nepal’s House of Representatives (Pratinidhi Sabha) as a result of this election. If voting in the next Nepali electi
If CPN (UML) wins the 2026 Nepal House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If bo
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