This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at Minister Pistarini International Airport in Buenos Aires on February 19, 2026. The market resolves based on data from the Weather Underground (Wunderground) historical records for the SAEZ weather station, which is the official meteorological observation point for the airport. Participants will predict which temperature range contains the day's highest recorded Celsius temperature. This specific forecast combines meteorology with predictive analytics, creating a measurable outcome tied to a single day's weather at a precise location. Interest in such markets comes from meteorology enthusiasts, climate researchers, and participants in prediction platforms who analyze seasonal patterns, urban heat island effects, and the accuracy of long-range forecasting models. The date, February 19, falls during the Southern Hemisphere's late summer, a period when Buenos Aires typically experiences its warmest conditions, making extreme heat events a possibility. The market's resolution depends entirely on the finalized instrument reading from one certified station, eliminating ambiguity but focusing attention on microclimate variability at the airport versus the broader city. Recent trends of increasing summer temperatures in Argentina have drawn more attention to daily maximum records as indicators of climate patterns.

Historical Context

Buenos Aires has a long period of recorded meteorological data, with official observations dating back to the 19th century. The city's climate is classified as humid subtropical, characterized by hot, humid summers. The location of the official observing station shifted to Minister Pistarini International Airport in the latter half of the 20th century, standardizing modern records. Historically, February is the second warmest month in Buenos Aires, with average maximum temperatures around 29-30°C (84-86°F). The all-time highest temperature ever recorded in the city occurred on January 29, 1957, when the thermometer reached 43.3°C (109.9°F) at the old Observatory of Villa Ortúzar. More recently, a significant heatwave in January 2022 saw temperatures exceed 41°C at the Ezeiza station. The specific date of February 19 has seen varied conditions. For example, on February 19, 2023, the maximum at Ezeiza was 33.2°C, while on February 19, 2020, it reached 35.0°C. These precedents show typical late-summer variability, influenced by wind patterns, humidity, and the occasional passage of cold fronts from the south. Long-term data from the SMN indicates a warming trend in summer maximums over the past five decades, consistent with broader climate change observations in southern South America.

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